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A sweet future for Tate & Lyle

The ingredients company reported at the half-year that volumes had increased in both the specialty food ingredients and bulk ingredients divisions
November 7, 2017

The future looks sweet at Tate & Lyle (TATE). While the company's name still has strong associations with the eponymous sugar brand, it has not been in the sugar business since 2010 when it sold those interests to American Sugar Refining for £211m. The company's focus now is on food ingredients, including sweeteners, thickeners and 'wellness' ingredients, such as dietary fibre. This puts the group in a strong position to meet growing demand from consumers for foods made from healthier ingredients. The company aims to make the most of the opportunities on offer by focusing on higher-margin products and emerging markets growth. We think this strategy gives the shares the potential to benefit from broker upgrades and a possible rerating in the years ahead as the company hones in on its 2020 performance targets. What's more, Tate & Lyle is also paying an attractive and growing dividend that is supported by improving cash flow and a robust balance sheet.

IC TIP: Buy at 700p
Tip style
Income
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Evolving to meet consumer tastes
Improving volumes in both divisions
Investing in product innovation
Increasing dividend yield

Bear points

Nafta worries
Weakness in North American markets

The year has started well for Tate. Having reported volume growth in both its divisions - bulk ingredients and speciality food ingredients – in the first quarter, last week's first-half results showed the trends had continued. The bulk ingredients division was the star performer of the first half with adjusted operating profit up by more than a third to £93m. But the speciality food business also increased profits, albeit at a more modest rate of 4 per cent to £104m.

Growth in speciality food ingredients was in spite of challenging market conditions in North America, where large food producers are coming under pressure from smaller, more niche 'pure label' alternatives. Still, volumes in North America grew 1 per cent, primarily due to new business wins with large existing customers, a focus on high-growth areas such as bakery and snack bars, as well as health and wellness trends providing a boost to private labels.  

Despite the strong recent performance from bulk ingredients, the longer-term focus of the group is to move away from these lower-margin sales – the division accounted for 64 per cent of last year's sales but just 42 per cent of profit – and focus on the higher-margin, innovation-led speciality business.

Indeed, one of three strategic goals for 2020 is to take the proportion of operating profit generated by speciality food to 70 per cent compared with 58 per cent last year. Over the same period broker Liberum forecasts operating margins at the division will rise from 18.2 per cent last year to 20.8 per cent, suggesting the strategy should have noteworthy benefits for the bottom line.

A second 2020 target is to increase the proportion of speciality food ingredient sales from Asia and Latin America to 30 per cent of the division's total. Partly to this end, the company recently announced plans to double the capacity of its Maltosweet Maltodextrin product line, a corn-based sweetener used in a wide range of food and drinks, at its facility in Slovakia by 2019. Management reckons this will allow the company to supply growing demand for infant formula in the Asia Pacific and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) regions. Speciality volumes grew by 6 per cent in Asia and Latin America in the first half, with particularly strong demand from China and Mexico. The future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) under the Trump administration is a concern in regard to trade with Mexico, but an existing agreement over sugar is expected to provide some protection.

The final element of the 2020 targets is that new product sales – defined as products still within seven years of launch – should hit $200m a year. At the full year new product sales exceeded $100m for the first time thanks to continued investment in product innovation. This trend also carried through to the half year with a 14 per cent increase in sales in this space to $58m, which the group put down to more consumers looking for ways to cut sugar, fat, and calories from their food and drinks. 

TATE & LYLE (TATE)   
ORD PRICE:700pMARKET VALUE:£3.26bn
TOUCH:699.5-700p12-MONTH HIGH:797pLOW: 622p
FW DIVIDEND YIELD:4.2%FW PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:278pNET DEBT:29%
Year toRevenuePre-taxEarningsDividend
30 Sept(£bn)profit (£m)*per share (p)*per share (p)
Year to 30 SeptRevenue (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)*Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)
20152.3418432.328.0
20162.3619334.728.0
20172.7527147.828.0
2018*2.8331151.328.7
2019*2.8931753.029.4
% change+2+2+3+2
Normal market size:3,000   
Matched bargain trading    
Beta:0.81   
*Liberum forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures