Here’s a recipe for a successful third-quarter announcement: blend strong operating cash flows, wide refining margins, $2.34bn (£1.76bn) of downstream earnings and more oil and gas production than usual. Beat consensus forecasts by 18 per cent and break even at $49 a barrel of Brent. Add a recent surge in oil prices, dust with the promise of a share buy-back, and allow the stock to rise.
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