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Alpha's potential looks priced in

The asset management consultancy should profit from reforms due to be implemented in 2018
December 5, 2017

Like much larger peer Sanne (SNN), Alpha Financial Markets Consulting (AFM) hopes to take advantage of the rising compliance burden and fee pressure weighing on the asset management industry. The company, which joined Aim in October, offers four categories of services: strategy and advisory; evaluation of service providers; project implementation; and fee benchmarking. After stripping out IPO-related costs, underlying cash profit was up almost 71 per cent to £5.8m during the first half.

IC TIP: Hold at 166.5p

Growing headcount and expanding geographically are an important part of Alpha’s strategy. The UK accounted for 62 per cent of revenue during the first half, increasing by more than a third to £18m. In Europe, a new office was opened in Geneva and larger spaces secured in Paris and Luxembourg. Consultant numbers on the continent increased from 47 to 70. It also acquired German-based consultancy TrackTwo, which management expects to contribute €0.7m (£0.6m) to adjusted cash profit for the full year.   

However, the US is where the biggest opportunity growth lies. The consulting market is around 10 times bigger than the UK, according to chief executive Euan Fraser. Revenue there doubled after the US leadership team was restructured and some UK employees seconded to the business to give added scale. The group also opened an office in Singapore – its first in Asia.

Analysts at house broker Berenberg expect adjusted operating profit of £11.3m this year, giving EPS of 8.9p (from £8.3m and 6.5p in FY2017).

ALPHA FINANCIAL MARKETS CONSULTING (AFM)
ORD PRICE:166.5pMARKET VALUE:£170m
TOUCH:165-168p12-MONTH HIGH:177pLOW: 165p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.9%PE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:*NET DEBT:£85m
Half-year to 30 SepTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2016**19.1-1.5-24.2na
201728.7-0.9-15.21.48
% change+51---
Ex-div:07 Dec   
Payment:22 Dec   
*Negative shareholders' equity  **Pre-IPO