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Acacia: resolve, but no resolution

Still no news of a settlement between Acacia parent Barrick and Tanzanian authorities
February 12, 2018

Acacia Mining (ACA) posted a record low all-in sustaining cost of $875 (£631) per ounce sold in 2017, thanks to increased production rates and inventory adjustments at its Buzwagi mine. A commendable performance, under the circumstances. But let’s be clear: there is nothing sustainable about the gold miner’s current situation.

IC TIP: Sell at 161p

That’s not just because the upper range for this year’s all-in cost forecast is $985; in fact, management thinks that should be enough to return to free cash generation. Moreover, a massive cloud still looms above Acacia, and it's one that will not be dispersed by a truly staggering gross impairment charge of $850m, which includes a $686m non-cash write-down of property, plant and equipment, and a further $122m hit to goodwill.

The total impairment charge – a product of the ongoing ban on concentrate exports and “uncertainty in the operating environment” – is muddied somewhat by the accounting treatment of $172m of additional tax provisions related to a Barrick-brokered framework agreement to settle the stand-off between Acacia and Tanzanian authorities. Another tax headache – namely, the steady growth in receivables – has combined with a build-up in working capital to further strain the balance sheet, forcing the sale of a mining royalty post-period for $45m. Output, capital expenditure and exploration is all set to fall, although analysts still expect adjusted pre-tax profit of $170m and EPS of 32.3¢ in 2018, versus estimates of $173m and 28.9¢ last year.

ACACIA MINING (ACA)  
ORD PRICE:161pMARKET VALUE:£660m
TOUCH:160-161p12-MONTH HIGH:546pLOW: 153p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:273¢NET CASH:$9.5m
Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)   Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend share (¢)
20130.93-929-1813.0
20140.9311521.84.2
20150.87-124-48.14.2
20161.0524223.210.4
20170.75-710-173nil
% change-29---100
Ex-div:na   
Payment:na   
£1=$1.39