Join our community of smart investors

Earls Court still a drag for CapCo

Covent Garden is going well; Earls Court isn't
February 21, 2018

Around 70 per cent of the value in the property portfolio of Capital & Counties (CAPC) is in the Covent Garden estate, where the market valuation grew by 4.3 per cent in 2017 to £2.55bn. A total of 21 new retail brands were added, and net rental income grew by 17.8 per cent or 11.3 per cent on a like-for-like basis.

IC TIP: Sell at 268.6p

That’s where the good news ends, because the Earls Court development continues to be a millstone around the landlord’s neck. A lack of appetite for high-end apartments meant that the largest plot of land there, known as the Earls Court Partnership Limited, suffered a 16 per cent devaluation or 35 per cent from its December 2015 high. Residential sales have slowed to a crawl, with just seven reservations in the second half of the year out of a total of 34 for the year.

While the Earls Court masterplan provides for 7,500 homes, there is some disagreement with the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham regarding the level of density and affordable housing, although discussions are ongoing over the possibility of the council taking the lead on future plans.

Analysts at Peel Hunt are forecasting adjusted net asset value at the December 2018 year-end of 334p per share, unchanged from 2017.

CAPITAL & COUNTIES PROPERTIES (CAPC) 
ORD PRICE:268.6pMARKET VALUE:£2.28bn
TOUCH:268.5-268.8p12-MONTH HIGH:326pLOW: 252p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.6%TRADING STOCK:nil
DISCOUNT TO NAV:19%NET DEBT:24% 
INVEST PROPERTIES:£3.66bn*  
Year to 31 DecNet asset value (p)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201323934744.11.5
201430045055.61.5
201534946051.31.5
2016332-251-15.01.5
2017330-62.5-0.81.5
% change-1---
Ex-div19 Apr   
Payment:23 May   
*Includes joint ventures