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Senior – volumes up, margins down

Positive signs on demand for the engineer's end markets, but a transition to new programmes in aerospace has constricted margins
February 26, 2018

Healthier aerospace and industrial vehicle markets helped to restore Senior’s (SNR) credibility in 2017. Revenues saw a double-digit increase, or 6 per cent when excluding the £45.5m it pocketed from favourable currency movements, suggesting that demand for the engineer’s components is returning after a difficult few years of trading.

IC TIP: Hold at 295p

Calls for more efficient, large commercial aircraft, amid increasing air traffic, led key customers, Boeing and Airbus, to start building new planes again, although this had negative implications for margins. Elsewhere, the stabilisation of commodity prices also triggered a rise in heavy truck sales, boosting revenues at Flexonics, Senior’s other division, by 12 per cent to £299m.

Unfortunately, top-line gains came at the expense of profits. Flexonics’ end markets are strengthening, yet conditions in its most profitable segments – downstream oil and gas and power and energy – remain challenging. And in aerospace a preference to retire mature aircraft programmes in favour of developing new ones forced Senior to swallow some extra costs. Those factors saw the group’s adjusted operating margin tighten by 1.2 percentage points to 8.1 per cent, prompting a 9 per cent decline in adjusted operating profit at constant currencies.

Prior to these results, Numis expected 2018 pre-tax profit of £85m, leading to adjusted EPS of 15.8p, up from £72.5m and 14.2p in 2017.

SENIOR (SNR)   
ORD PRICE:295pMARKET VALUE:£1.24bn
TOUCH:295-296p12-MONTH HIGH:306pLOW: 173p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.4%PE RATIO:21
NET ASSET VALUE:127p*NET DEBT:29%
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20130.7883.817.25.12
20140.8280.615.35.63
20150.8563.811.66.20
20160.9255.510.86.57
20171.0252.214.46.95
% change+12-6+33+6
Ex-div:3 May   
Payment:31 May   
*Includes intangible assets of £344m, or 82p a share