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Alfa rallies on improving outlook

The software group endured a turbulent 2018, complete with a mid-year profit warning
March 7, 2019

In the words of management, “2018 was a challenging year” for Alfa Financial Software (ALFA). A fitting precis: the group’s market value crashed last June, after it warned on profits – citing customer project delays. However, the full-year results signalled improving prospects for the provider of software to the asset finance industry. Its shares were marked up by more than a fifth in response.

IC TIP: Hold at 151p

As was to be expected, the key performance metrics weren’t exactly encouraging. Software implementation revenues declined by 30 per cent to £30.4m, after the (pre-disclosed) pausing of an ongoing implementation by a major customer and the slower-than-expected conversion of the group’s sales pipeline. In turn, Alfa relied more heavily on its ongoing development and services (ODS) segment, which grew 15 per cent to £23.9m.

But the group is now progressing on new sales opportunities. It is in contractual discussions with a new European customer, and is working on an implementation for an existing multinational customer. It has also merged its sales and commercial teams, with a view to speeding up the pace at which sales are turned around.

House broker Numis expects adjusted pre-tax profit of £23.4m and EPS of 6.2p, against £22.5m and 6p in 2018.

ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE (ALFA)  
ORD PRICE:151pMARKET VALUE:£452m
TOUCH:149-151p12-MONTH HIGH:483pLOW: 101p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:24
NET ASSET VALUE:24p*NET DEBT:£44.9m
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2014**43.318.2nana
2015**54.022.9nana
2016**73.317.22.8nil
201787.833.99.1nil
201871.022.56.3nil
% change-19-34-31-
Ex-div:na   
Payment:na   

*Includes intangible assets of £25.9m,  or 9p a share

**Pre-IPO figures. Alfa floated in June 2017