Seven days: 12 April 2019

Seven days: 12 April 2019

IMF caution

Leaving the European Union without a deal would bring about a UK recession and have seven times the negative impact on the UK economy compared with the EU, according to modelling conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At the time of writing, European leaders had yet to sign off an extension to the Article 50 process that would avert a no-deal Brexit on 12 April. No deal would cause contractions in 2019 and 2020, and would overall hit UK gross domestic product (GDP) by about 3.5 per cent to 2021, compared with a soft Brexit as envisaged by the IMF.

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