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CMC Markets looks for tuna

The spread-betting firm believes client trading has stabilised after last year's regulatory hit, but profitability looks thin
June 6, 2019

“The thing about tuna clients is not finding them, it’s keeping them,” says CMC Markets (CMCX) founder and chief executive Peter Cruddas, referring to the higher-value customers he wants to cultivate now that regulation has reined in the risky bets smaller fry can make on his trading platform. Mr Cruddas needs a fix, and quick; in the six months to March, revenues from the spread-betting and CFD (contract-for-difference) business cratered by almost half, year on year.

IC TIP: Sell at 89p

There’s perhaps one sign in full-year results to suggest ‘project tuna’ is starting to work: segregated client money rose nine per cent to £332.4m by the end of March, despite a 10 per cent contraction in active clients. But the company’s suggestion that this is an “indicator of future trading potential” sounds hopeful, particularly when CMC also reports a dearth of event-driven trading opportunities and “range-bound markets”.

Then again, CMC’s business is more balanced “than it has ever been”, as Mr Cruddas tells it. The proof lies in a recent white-label deal with ANZ Bank, which drove an 81 per cent increase in income to the stockbroking business in the period. At £15.5m, this segment made up less than 12 per cent of last year’s top-line, and brings higher costs to the broader group.

The consensus forecast is for earnings of 8p a share in the year to March 2020.

CMC MARKETS (CMCX)  
ORD PRICE:89pMARKET VALUE:£258m
TOUCH:87.5-92p12-MONTH HIGH:210pLOW: 74p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.2%PE RATIO:45
NET ASSET VALUE:71pNET CASH:£46m
Year to 31 MarTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2015*15843.512.4n/a
201618653.415.18.93
201718848.513.78.93
201820960.117.38.93
20191636.32.02.0
% change-22-89-88-78
Ex-div:01 Aug   
Payment:06 Sep   
*Pre-IPO