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FTSE 350: Reit income prospects diverge

The market seems braced for dividend cuts from some real estate investment trusts this year
January 30, 2020

The ability to earn a reliable income is high on the wishlist for investors considering an allocation to the UK’s real estate investment trusts (Reits), but locating sustainable dividend growth has become a tougher task. Structural changes within the retail sector mean rental income for landlords such as NewRiver Reit (NRR) and Hammerson (HMSO) looks set to continue to come under pressure, with double-digit dividend yields offered by shares in both groups suggesting the market is expecting a dividend cut. 

In contrast, the rise of e-commerce and a lack of supply of urban logistics and big-box warehouse space has driven up rents and industrial property valuations, with prime investment yields across multi-let sites falling to 4 per cent at the end of last year, according to research by real estate services specialise Savills (SVS), compared with 6 per cent five years earlier. Given the lack of new space being developed, particularly within the so-called ‘last mile delivery’ market, further consolidation within the logistics market could occur this year, following LondonMetric’s (LMP) takeover of A&J Mucklow in May. The impressive rental growth delivered by industrial property groups has allowed them to trade at premiums to portfolio net asset value (NAV). 

The office sector has been relatively constant in delivering rental growth and maintaining high occupancy rates, but has not been rewarded by investors with the same high valuations. As some of the political uncertainty that caused developers and landlords such as Derwent London (DLN) to trade at sharp valuations to the NAV of their portfolios has dissipated, the discounts being applied to many of these companies have turned to premiums. 

Office assets have been generating relatively stable rental income in recent years, although the rate at which new rents are being agreed above estimated rental values is reducing. Is the market at risk of being ‘over-rented’? During the first half of last year, 11 per cent of passing rent generated by the UK's offices was greater than the open market value, according to research by MSCI and BNP Paribas, a higher level than the retail and industrial sectors.

IC SectorNAMEPrice (p)Market cap (£m)12-month (%)Fwd PEYield (%)Last IC View
ReitsAssura 761,83739.70%263.60%Hold, 72.2p, 12 Nov 2019
ReitsBig Yellow Group1,1701,94225.20%272.90%Hold, 1,156p, 19 Nov 2019
ReitsBritish Land5785,3603.90%175.40%Hold, 555p, 13 Nov 2019
ReitsDerwent London 4,1864,67936.70%381.60%Buy, 3,726p, 28 Nov 2019
ReitsGCP Student Living 20191234.50%353.10%-
ReitsGreat Portland Estates9432,38432.80%431.30%Hold, 782p, 20 Nov 2019
ReitsHammerson 2511,993-28.20%910.30%Hold, 267p, 29 Jul 2019
ReitsLand Securities Group 9587,09015.20%174.80%Hold, 890p, 12 Nov 2019
ReitsLondonMetric Property 2301,92928.10%243.70%Hold, 244p, 27 Nov 2019
ReitsLXI REIT13570614.20%-4.20%Buy, 116.5p, 29 Nov 2018
ReitsNewRiver REIT 191584-8.30%1011.30%Sell, 206p, 19 Dec 2019
ReitsPrimary Health Properties 1581,91938.50%273.50%Buy, 134p, 24 Sep 2019
ReitsSafestore Holdings 7811,64443.10%262.20%Hold, 797p, 07 Jan 2020
ReitsSEGRO 9059,91942.60%352.20%Buy, 773p, 24 Jul 2019
ReitsShaftesbury 9182,8158.60%491.90%Hold, 940p, 26 Nov 2019
ReitsThe Unite Group 1,3024,73346.30%322.30%Sell, 1,050p, 23 Jul 2019
ReitsTritax Big Box REIT 1412,4001.70%204.80%Buy, 145p, 8 Aug 2019
ReitsUK Commercial Property REIT881,149-0.30%-4.20%-
ReitsWorkspace Group 1,1972,16233.50%262.80%Hold, 1,108p, 14 Nov 2019

*The original version of this article incorrectly stated that Warehouse Reit was a constituent of the FTSE 350, that has now been amended