Let’s start with a mixed metaphor – in its pursuit of free trade, the UK is anchored to the European Union while swimming against the tide. The anchor – it’s more like gravity really, as we will show – chains much of the UK’s trade to the EU, while the tide pulls trading nations towards each other even while the UK strikes out in search of free trade deals of its own.
Officially, that search begins today – 31 January – when the UK ‘leaves’ the EU. Note the inverted commas because that date marks the start of a twilight period when the UK is officially out but effectively still in. This transition ends on 31 December and the government plans to legislate so as to make it illegal – at least in UK law – for the period to be extended. That plays well to Brexit supporters but is unlikely to make the task of securing free trade deals easier.
To see why, let’s start with a sketch of where and with whom the UK does its global trading; after that, readers may want to scan the box below, ‘So what exactly is free trade?’ Then we will explain the so-called ‘gravity model’ of international trade, an economic theory that’s particularly relevant to the UK’s situation, and end with a discussion of the tough choices that Boris Johnson’s government is likely to face in the real world.