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Oxford Biomedica gives bear scenario

House broker says assumptions “highly unlikely to occur”
May 6, 2020

Oxford Biomedica (OXB) has not yet experienced “any significant impact” from the coronavirus crisis. But in a “rigorous assessment” of downside risks, the group noted it needed external funding to sustain its operations. The gene and cell editing specialist added that revenues could, hypothetically, slip by almost 30 per cent were it to attract fewer new customers and lower demand from its existing client-base. In that scenario, the group said it “would not be able to generate sufficient cash flows to support its level of activities beyond the third quarter”.

IC TIP: Hold at 672p

However, management expressed confidence that the accounts for 2019 should be prepared on a “going concern” basis – not least because Oxford Biomedica has continued to win new customers. It also has ‘key worker’ status under the lockdown, allowing it to continue to function. Moreover, the group recently joined a consortium led by Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, aiming to develop and manufacture a possible coronavirus vaccine. House broker Peel Hunt commented that the audit scenario analysis was “too bearish vs reality”, and based on “very theoretical assumptions” – “highly unlikely to occur”.

The full-year results showed that licences, milestones and royalties revenues had slipped by just over two-thirds to £16.8m. But, bioprocessing and commercial developments rose by 17 per cent to £47.3m. Meanwhile, after ploughing money into its new Oxbox facility, the group swung from profit to an operating loss of £14.5m.

OXFORD BIOMEDICA (OXB)  
ORD PRICE:672pMARKET VALUE:£ 517m
TOUCH:664-672p12-MONTH HIGH:793pLOW: 366p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:98pNET CASH:£7.9m*
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201515.9-17.0-0.5nil
201627.8-20.3-0.6nil
201737.6-11.8-14.5nil
201866.85.011.6nil
201964.1-20.9-22.1nil
% change-4---
Ex-div:na   
Payment:na   
*Includes lease liabilities of £8.4m