Join our community of smart investors

Saga pitches its next chapter

Backed by a £150m cash injection, the over-50s travel and insurance group wants a clean break with the past
September 10, 2020

Saga (SAGA) was weakened by its decade of private equity ownership. To many, that has been clear for some time, though it has taken the group six years since its glossy IPO – to which tens of thousands of the over-50s travel operator-cum-insurer’s own customers subscribed – to arrive at something approaching proper candour.

IC TIP: Hold at 15.7p

“Debt was increased dramatically and decision making became too focused on the short-term,” the over-50s travel and insurance group said in plans outlining the capital raise led by former boss Sir Roger de Haan. The franchise’s depletion has continued in public hands, too, with “the potential impact of some of the investment made…lost due to poor delivery”.

Chief executive Euan Sutherland presumably hopes such honesty, alongside the £150m cash injection, means a clean break with the past. But investors still have no clear sense how a loyal customer base and improving insurance arm can override the ongoing headache Covid-19 poses to the cash-generating travel operations. Half-year numbers – marked by a 57 per cent drop in non-insurance revenue – spell out the damage.

Mr Sutherland also defended the decision to walk away from a “highly speculative bid in the summer” from private capital. On a media call, he argued the now-rescinded 33p initial offer failed to reflect the value in the new strategy, and “would likely have gone down” if it eventually led to a firm bid. Institutional shareholders, we are told, agreed with management.

Consensus forecasts are for earnings of 1.9p a share for the year to January 2021, rising to 5.3p in FY2022.

SAGA (SAGA)    
ORD PRICE:15.7pMARKET VALUE:£176m
TOUCH:15.7-16.2p12-MONTH HIGH:60pLOW: 12.5p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:NA
NET ASSET VALUE:50pNET DEBT: 110%
Half-year to 31 JulTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201939652.64.11.3
2020192-55.5-5.1nil
% change-51---
Ex-div:n/a   
Payment:n/a