As you will no doubt have heard this week, it is exactly 10 years since the credit crunch began, prompting much reflection of whether the global economy is any healthier today. The honest answer is that it is hard to say for sure: the systemic weaknesses in the banking system that catalysed the last crash have largely been addressed, but fears remain that the medicine dished out a decade ago has failed to deliver broad-based economic growth – wealth inequality in developed economies has risen, and with it social unrest – while debt has soared and could still cause further unpleasant side effects, not least in Europe, where parts of the banking system remain fragile, or China, where frankly we haven’t a clue what is going on, especially in its shadow banking system. It’s also an opportune time to understand the clues that preceded the crunch to make sure we are ready in case of another.
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