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Metro Bank's price tag unjustified

Shares in the challenger bank are the most highly rated in the sector, even though it has only just started turning a profit
August 31, 2017

Metro Bank (MTRO) has been growing its loan book and customer deposits at an extraordinary rate since its shares were listed in March 2016. However, this growth has come at a high price, with operational costs also rising fast. This is partly due to the banking group’s plan to open branches in costly high-street locations. It also recently needed to raise further capital from new and existing shareholders in order to back its growing loan book, resulting in its return-on-equity target being pushed back by two years. Meanwhile, the shares are trading at an incredibly lofty valuation, even against other expensively-rated challenger banks. We reckon this is unjustified for a bank that has only just started turning a small pre-tax profit, and depends on hitting ambitious lending targets.     

IC TIP: Sell at 3491p
Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points

Growing loan book

No legacy issues

Bear points

Operating costs rising

Highest rating of UK banks

Targeted returns pushed into the future

Exposed to UK's deteriorating credit conditions

Metro Bank was launched in 2010 by Commerce Bancorp founder Vernon Hill as one of the first challenger banks to be introduced to the UK in the wake of the financial crisis. The bank is trying to differentiate itself from its rivals – both the major lenders and challenger peers – by presenting itself as more of a retailer than a bank. Central to this is expanding its branches, or, as management calls them, ‘stores’, which are primarily in London and the south-east of England. At the time of its listing, management had set a target of operating 110 branches by 2020, from the 40 already up and running. At the end of June, 48 stores were operational, with a further eight planned for the second half of this year bringing the Metro chain to half its planned size.

However, opening new high-street branches has come with a high price tag. Operating costs have been rising apace, up a quarter to £106m during the first six months of the year. True, operating income has also been rising at an impressive rate, increasing by more than half to £131m during the same period as the loan book grew two-thirds year on year during the first half of 2016 and deposits were up by half to £9.8bn. This meant Metro was able to produce its first pre-tax profit of £4.4m. 

However, earlier this year management needed to raise a further £278m via a share placing with new and existing shareholders. The funds are to be held as capital to back its growing loan book. That was in addition to the £400m of new money raised at its flotation. As a resultof operating on this enlarged base of equity, management has pushed out its target of making an 18 per cent return on equity by two years to 2022.

Achieving its targeted returns – as well as offsetting its high cost base – depends on Metro Bank maintaining its rapid loan growth in an environment of falling asset yields and weakening macroeconomic data. The challenger bank is highly exposed to the UK's retail banking market, with residential mortgages and personal loans to retail customers accounting for two-thirds of its loan book at the end of June. Given rising competition and post-referendum uncertainty in the UK market, its growth targets look ambitious.

METRO BANK (MTRO)   
ORD PRICE:3,452pMARKET VALUE:£3.05bn
TOUCH:3,452-3,456p12-MONTH HIGH:3,872pLOW: 2,350p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:NILFORWARD PE RATIO:48
NET ASSET VALUE:1,009pLEVERAGE:18.7
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2015120-56.8-83.1nil
2016195-17.2-21.8nil
2017*30228.425.4nil
2018*44488.272.0nil
% change+47+211+183-
NMS:500   
Matched Bargain Trading    
BETA:-0.2   
*Investec Securities forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures