Like most global pharmaceutical companies, Shire (SHP) has had a miserable 2017. However, until now, we have considered the spiralling share price declines as unwarranted due to the strength of the group’s new drugs pipeline. But unexpectedly strong clinical trial results from a competitive haemophilia product made by German peer Roche have dimmed the outlook. Broker Liberum now expects sales from the haemophilia franchise to be 25 per cent lower than previous forecasts between 2017 and 2022.
Roche’s drug, Hemlibra, showed superiority to Shire’s Factor VIII products, which are currently in the final stages of development. This means that Hemlibra is likely to attract virtually all new haemophilia patients and between 10 per cent and 50 per cent of the existing market.