Join our community of smart investors

Tracsis on the right track

The transport technology business looks set to see a pick up in growth
March 1, 2018

Trains and traffic: two concepts unlikely to inspire joy in the average UK citizen. But that's all the more reason to be excited about Tracsis (TRCS), a transport technology company helping businesses in the space improve their overall service delivery. After a mixed 2017 financial year, which started weak but ended strong, organic growth opportunities, strategic investments and acquisitions have laid the foundations for improved growth in 2018 that we feel is not yet factored into broker forecasts or Tracsis's share price.

IC TIP: Buy at 520p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Diversified rail and traffic offering
Strong net cash position
Overseas expansion
Acquisitions

Bear points

Department for Transport timetable delays
Challenging market conditions for traffic business

Tracsis’s revenues are well diversified, with roughly similar contributions from its two core business areas: rail technology and services, and traffic and data services. Rail revenues climbed from £14.1m to £16m in the 2017 financial year, buoyed by a first full-year contribution of £5.3m from Ontrac – acquired in December 2015. Ontrac’s ‘eTrac’ software, which provides digital mapping of railway networks, has generated interest among key customers: its team “have high confidence” of a significant sale in 2018, which could materially bolster the P&L.

The rail business also won a software contract last July with one of the UK’s leading train operators, to use its ‘TRACS Enterprise’ product. This four-year, multimillion pound contract could generate leads with other operators.

Moreover, another rail segment – remote condition monitoring – delivered a major order with a North American railroad operator during FY2017. This marked Tracsis’s first major contract outside of the UK. Analysts at finnCap say the total order value of over $0.4m (£0.29m) is “enough for just 5 per cent of this particular network”, implying an $8m opportunity.

Last year wasn’t without challenges for rail. Its consultancy practice suffered from changes to the Department for Transport’s rail franchise competition timetable. However, management softened the blow by replacing missing revenues with new project wins; sales fell by just £0.4m to £1.7m. Tracsis has since “created a far more robust business”.

Meanwhile, the group’s traffic and transport data offering is now the largest in the UK. While its full-year sales were flat at £18.5m, these were supported by the first full-year contribution of £5.7m from SEP – an events traffic business, purchased in September 2015 for £2.6m. SEP sees Premier League football clubs as a “major opportunity”.

Traffic has faced its own difficulties, with competitive market conditions and gross margin pressure. But restructuring has helped to achieve annualised cost savings of around £0.6m, starting this financial year. Plus, last April, Tracsis paid £1.3m for a 28 per cent stake in Vivacity Labs – a provider of data for smart cities and intelligent transport systems. This should reduce traffic analysis costs.

TRACSIS (TRCS)   
ORD PRICE:520pMARKET VALUE:£147m
TOUCH:510-530p12-MONTH HIGH:575pLOW: 348p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:0.3%FORWARD PE RATIO:21
NET ASSET VALUE:119p*NET CASH:£15.4m
Year to 31 JulTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201525.45.818.31.0
201631.46.722.01.2
201734.57.623.31.4
2018**35.87.723.41.5
2019**37.48.024.21.7
% change+4+4+3+13
Normal market size:750   
Matched bargain trading    
Beta:0.24   

*Includes intangible assets of £24.5m, or 86.7p a share

**Investec forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures