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Sirius looks for government guarantee

The prospective potash miner wants taxpayers to underwrite two-thirds of its stage two financing
March 6, 2018

At this stage in the evolution of Sirius Minerals (SXX), market sentiment is less closely aligned to financial results than to operational milestones (and the management commentary adorning them). So, although preliminary numbers for the prospective potash miner offered few revelations, investors were thrown some colour from chairman Russell Scrimshaw.

IC TIP: Buy at 28p

Most notable was Mr Scrimshaw’s remark that realising the full economic benefits of the Woodsmith mine and its infrastructure require “a partnership with the UK government in the form of a Treasury guarantee”, which he described as “essential”. Sirius is asking a lot: as recently detailed, the group wants taxpayers to guarantee $2bn (£1.44bn) of debt, matching the commercial terms attached to the $1bn tranche sought from debt capital markets to complete the second-stage financing. A glance at the Infrastructure and Projects Authority’s pipeline for guarantees reveals few neat comparisons with a multi-billion pound mine, although the FTSE 250 constituent is confident of meeting the criteria.

On average, analysts are guiding for a pre-tax loss of £29m this year, and a 0.1p loss per share, compared with forecast losses of £97.2m and 0.5p in 2017.

SIRIUS MINERALS (SXX)  
ORD PRICE:28pMARKET VALUE:£1.25bn
TOUCH:27.8-28p12-MONTH HIGH:35.5pLOW: 16.8p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:N/A
NET ASSET VALUE:11pNET CASH:£267m
Year to 31 Mar Turnover (£m)   Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2015nil-10.1-0.5nil
Year to 31 Dec Turnover (£m)   Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2015nil-10.1-0.5nil
2016nil-23.4-0.9nil
2017nil-79.2-1.8nil
% change----
Ex-div:n/a   
Payment:n/a