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Chesnara superior income too cheap

The life assurance consolidator has raised annual dividends for 13 consecutive years, backed by solid cash generation
July 26, 2018

Chesnara’s (CSN) accelerating cash generation is driving improved income prospects. The life assurance consolidator has a solid track record of extracting value from buying both closed and open books of business to boost cash flows and increase dividend payments. In fact, last year’s 3 per cent dividend increase represented the 13th successive annual rise. What’s more, the €161m (£144m) acquisition of Legal & General’s (LGEN) Dutch business last year, which is an open-book business that writes new policies, has made the group less reliant on making bolt-on purchases to boost capital generation and dividend payments.

IC TIP: Buy at 386p
Tip style
Income
Risk rating
Low
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Growing cash generation

Solid dividend record

Shares at a discount to economic value

Diversifying income streams

Bear points

FCA investigation

Lower Solvency II ratio than peers

Chesnara – which operates in the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands – aims to grow profitability via three methods: maximising value from in-force business via management actions, acquiring life and pensions businesses, and writing new business. The most recent purchase of LGEN’s Dutch business – since renamed Scildon – potentially scores across all three points. Last year the business contributed £16.2m in cash following its acquisition. And management hopes to enhance the business’s contribution after initiating a two-year efficiency programme. So far, the signs are positive – management acquired Scildon expecting it to break even in the first year, but encouragingly it delivered a modest £1.9m profit.

Management reckons the purchase will also help it achieve the upper end of its target 5-10 per cent protection market share range. Combined with Swedish business Movestic, the addition of Scildon means open-book life assurance accounted for two-thirds of new business last year, which should reduce the group’s reliance on making new closed-book acquisitions to increase dividends.

Even without the cash added by Scildon post-acquisition, cash generation almost doubled to £68m. That supported record aggregate dividends paid to Chesnara from its divisions of £70m, including £22.2m from Scildon. Movestic also paid an inaugural £2.8m dividend. The latter has grown assets under management by 81 per cent over the past four years to £2.9bn and more than doubled its economic value to £252m. Admittedly, cash generation at closed-book Netherlands-based Waard was down 29 per cent on the prior year at £11.5m. However, last year’s figure benefited from an £8.5m foreign exchange gain.

The UK closed-book business was the biggest contributor to cash generation last year, remitting £34.5m – up 62 per cent on the prior year. It benefited from the release of £9m of previously trapped surplus from two ring-fenced with-profits funds. Improved equity markets also helped lift the business’s economic value by £46m to £429m. The UK-based Countrywide Assured business has been under investigation by the Financial Conduct Authority since 2016 over how it disclosed exit fees to policyholders. However, management says that, given the narrow scope of the investigation, it doesn’t think the outcome will have a material impact on the company.

CHESNARA (CSN)    
ORD PRICE:386pMARKET VALUE:£579m
TOUCH:386-386.5p12-MONTH HIGH:425pLOW: 335p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:5.5%FORWARD PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:301p*SOLVENCY II RATIO:146%
Year to 31 DecEconomic value per share (p)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201536042.831.518.9
201640340.727.719.5
201749689.652.420.1
2018**51140.824.320.8
2019**53040.824.321.3
% change+4  +3
Normal market size:5,000   
Beta:0.59   
*Includes intangible assets of £189m, or 126p a share
**Panmure Gordon forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures