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BAE maintains earnings guidance

The group reiterated its guidance for flat underlying EPS year-on-year, against a “promising” outlook for defence budgets
August 1, 2018

BAE Systems (BA.) didn’t exactly get off to a flying start in the six months to June, but there were signs of progress and the suggestion of momentum to come in the second half. By the group’s own non-standard measurement, sales fell from £9.5bn to £8.8bn – stemming from a decline in Typhoon production activity. Indeed, sales within the air division were down 11 per cent to £3.3bn.

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But these numbers don’t include the contract signed with Qatar in June to supply Typhoon and Hawk aircraft – nor an initial contract for Australia’s SEA 5000 frigate programme. Similarly, while the order backlog rose from £38.7bn to £39.7bn, this didn’t reflect the respective deals which are expected in the second half.

Management maintained its full-year guidance, still anticipating underlying EPS in-line with 2017. This is thanks to an expected improvement in earnings from the electronic systems division, and cyber and intelligence, mitigating certain challenges faced by the maritime and platforms-and-services businesses.

Within maritime, the order backlog rose from £9.1bn to £9.5bn. But performance issues on the Offshore Patrol Vessels programme led to a £15m loss provision. Meanwhile, platforms and services took a charge relating to challenges with a subcontractor on its Radford facilities programme.

Prior these results, JPMorgan was forecasting for adjusted EPS of 43.4p in 2018, against 43.5p in 2017.

BAE SYSTEMS (BA)   
ORD PRICE:641pMARKET VALUE:£ 20.5bn
TOUCH:641-641.4p12-MONTH HIGH:680pLOW: 534p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.4%PE RATIO:27
NET ASSET VALUE:182p*NET DEBT:33%
Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2017**8.9273417.98.8
20188.1657114.89.0
% change-8-22-17+2
Ex-div:18 Oct   
Payment:30 Nov   
*Includes intangible assets of £10.5bn, or 329p a share**2017 numbers have been restated, reflecting the group's adoption of IFRS 15