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Phoenix's geographic risk exposed

The unconventional driller's exposure to regional economic risk has undermined the investment case
September 18, 2018

On the day Phoenix Global Resources (PGR) detailed an increased net earnings loss for the half year to June, the Argentinian peso inched up against the dollar. Such a move – which arrived amid the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) warm reception to the government's latest measures to shore-up an ailing economy – is a rare thing. So while one assumes a measure of geographic risk is priced into stocks based in one of Latin America’s more volatile economies, speculation over a possible sovereign debt default hardly provides an ideal trading backdrop.

IC TIP: Sell at 22.7p

That speculation is unlikely to have had an impact on average production, which came in at 10,776 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boepd), down from a pro forma 11,304 boepd in the second half of 2017. The relative decline in production rates had more to do with the initiation of Phoenix's early-stage drilling projects, but the effect on the top line was mitigated by a significant increase in realised oil prices, up to an average of $60.34 (£46.13) a barrel, against $49.57 through the 2017 half year. However, the transition through to earnings was constricted by increased charges on depreciation, depletion, and amortisation, together with some non-recurring items.

PHOENIX GLOBAL RESOURCES (PGR) 
ORD PRICE:22.7pMARKET VALUE:£627m
TOUCH:22.5-25p12-MONTH HIGH:63pLOW: 17p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:13¢*NET DEBT:35%
Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
201758.0-7.0-1.0nil
201892.9-30.8-2.0nil
% change+60---
Ex-div:-   
Payment:-   
£1=$1.31 *Includes intangible assets of $225m, or 8¢ a share