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Centamin raises cost guidance

The Egyptian miner has again disappointed investors with guidance
Centamin raises cost guidance

In a strong entry for top euphemism of the corporate earnings season, Centamin (CEY) used its poor 2018 numbers to recognise the recent impact “on the shareholder experience”. That’s one way to describe a 56 per cent drop in free cash flow on a flat gold price.

IC TIP: Buy at 115p

Unfazed – or resolute in its belief it can reverse last year’s sharp fall in grades and output – the Egyptian miner claimed a final dividend of 3¢ a share meant it met a strategic goal to deliver “reliable stakeholder returns”. Shareholders thought otherwise, and voted with their feet on the publication of these results.

Compounding matters was another jump in this year’s forecast all-in sustaining costs to between $890 and $950 (£679-£725) an ounce. The increase is primarily due to an uptick in volumes scheduled from Sukari’s open pit, and essentially buries hopes that the fourth quarter all-in costs of $809 an ounce might be maintained in the near term. Still, grades are at least expected to improve in 2019 along with output, which Centamin says will grow by between 4 and 10 per cent, to as much as 520,000 ounces.

On average, analysts are forecasting full-year earnings of 9¢ per share, up from 7¢ in 2018.

CENTAMIN (CEY)   
ORD PRICE:101pMARKET VALUE:£ 1.17bn
TOUCH:101.1-101.45p12-MONTH HIGH:167pLOW: 85p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.2%PE RATIO:20
NET ASSET VALUE:111¢NET CASH:$322m
Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)*Dividend per share (¢)
201447381.67.22.86
201550858.44.52.94
201668726718.715.5
2017 (restated)6762078.412.5
20186031536.55.50
% change-11-26-22-56
Ex-div:18 Apr   
Payment:13 May   
£1=$1.31 *EPS calculated after profit share with Egyptian government.