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Fuller's ready for new growth phase

Fuller is now focused solely on pubs and hotels after the sale of its brewing business
March 14, 2019

Fuller, Smith & Turner (FSTA) kicked off 2019 with a surprise – the sale of its entire beer and brewing business to Asahi Europe for an enterprise value of £250m, or 23.6 times cash profits. This looks a great price for this business, which owns the iconic Griffin Brewery in Chiswick and several beer brands.  

IC TIP: Buy at 1070p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Sale of structurally weak brewing business

Potential to grow premium pub estate

Like-for-like sales growth

Shareholder returns from disposal

Bear points

Competitive market

Brexit tourism impact on hotels business

While separation, restructuring and tax costs will consume a hefty £45m of proceeds, the company still expects to return £55m-£69m to shareholders (equivalent to 100p-125p per 'A' share) while net debt should fall to less than one times cash profits. This leaves plenty of scope to invest in growing its higher-margin pub and hotel estate. As part of the deal, Fuller has entered into a 10-year supply agreement with Asahi, with which it had an existing relationship, which is expected to be on similar terms to those previously used internally.

The move looks particularly smart because, despite Fuller's focus on the quality of its beer and expansion through savvy brewing acquisitions, the beer business was being squeezed. Global consolidation had left it struggling to compete with big international players, while tax incentives for small brewers in the UK have meant an explosion of challenger craft brands.

Indeed, the beer business's underlying operating margin of 4.5 per cent last year compared badly with a far more attractive 12.3 per cent from managed pubs and hotels. The performance of the group's tenanted pubs has also been improving. Last year, managed pubs accounted for 63 per cent of operating profits, tenanted pubs 24 per cent and beer 13 per cent.  

While overexpansion by the eating-and-drinking-out sector has made life tougher for all operators, Fuller has benefited from its focus on high-quality pubs, which are predominately freehold-owned (88 per cent of property by value). And while the industry in general has seen pubs perform better than restaurants, it is impressive that Fuller's managed pubs and hotels recorded a 4.7 per cent like-for-like sales rise in the 42 weeks to 19 January and like-for-like tenanted pub profits were 2 per cent ahead. This underlines the quality of both the company's pub assets and its panache as an operator and landlord.

NameTIDMMkt capPrice Fwd NTM PEDYEV/SalesEV/Ebitda3-month momentumNet debt/Ebitda
Fuller, Smith & TurnerLSE:FSTA£595m1,070p171.8%1.91119.5%3.1
Young & Co.'sAIM:YNGA£705m1,693p241.2%2.91217.7%1.9
The City Pub Group plcAIM:CPC£138m225p311.0%3.42116.4%0.6

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

FULLER, SMITH & TURNER (FSTA)  
ORD PRICE:1,070pMARKET VALUE:£595m†
TOUCH:1,070-1,085p12-MONTH HIGH:1,140pLOW: 846p
FW DIVIDEND YIELD:13.7%FW PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:110pNET DEBT:63%
Year to 31 MarRevenue (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201635140.957.617.9
201739242.961.418.8
201840443.262.919.6
2019*43244.063.020.7
2020*35043.161.722.0
% change-19-2-2+6
Normal market size:300   
Beta:0.25   
*Peel Hunt forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS, DPS excludes forecast 125p capital return