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Cut and polish not enough for Gem

Lesotho diamond miner rebuilding but market is against it
September 12, 2019

Gem Diamonds’ (GEMD) production, sales and profit were all well down in the first half of 2019 compared with a year ago. This is due to the weak diamond market and because the company cut tonnage from its higher-grade satellite pipe (a kimberlite pipe is a diamond-bearing section of ore) at the 70 per cent-owned Letšeng mine as it made improvements to parts of the open pit. 

IC TIP: Sell at 75p
Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points

Big stone potential 

Forecast full-year net cash

Bear points

Weak diamond market 

Production fall

Reliance on large stones

No dividend

Production largely coming from the main pipe saw the number of major stones recovered fall year on year and overall carats come down, although this should improve in the second half as mining ramps up again at the satellite pipe. 

The bigger picture does not provide major hope for Gem, however. The diamond industry is in a tough moment. The sector’s bellwether, the De Beers sightholder auction, has seen sales decline dramatically. The most recent sale was down 44 per cent year on year, to $280m, and the Anglo American-owned company has let buyers postpone purchases and upped the proportion of boxes they can hand back. 

In recent years, Gem has floated above the turbulent small stone market by finding and selling 100-carat-plus diamonds. In 2018, it recovered 15 of these, including the 910-carat Lesotho Legend, which sold for $40m. It recovered 10 in the first half of 2018, compared with three in the first six months of this year. This year’s haul so far is more in line with previous years, with 2018’s performance a standout. 

Gem has not had the larger stones to lean back on with the market struggling. Its find of a “very rare” 13-carat pink diamond – sold for $8.8m at a record $657,000 per carat – brought only limited solace. Despite a move back to the satellite pipe in the second half, the earnings top-up could be limited as the price lows are spreading beyond the small stones. “During the period, rough prices of large, high-value diamonds have shown signs of weakness,” Gem said, although it expects very large stones to hold their value. 

Chief executive Clifford Elphick said there was “huge interest” in Gem’s current rough sale, but emphasised the tough backdrop. “We do think that being at the very top end on the quality curve that our goods would be less vulnerable to market pressures, but I mustn't mislead you and say that they are immune,” he said. 

GEM DIAMONDS (GEMD)   
ORD PRICE:75pMARKET VALUE:£104m 
TOUCH:75-76p12-MONTH HIGH:124pLOW:68.4p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:naFORWARD PE RATIO:5 
NET ASSET VALUE:115ȼNET DEBT:0.3% 
Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (ȼ)Dividend per share (ȼ)
2016190-124-115-
2017214304-
20182677319-
2019*2123710-
2020*2455918-
% change+16+59+80-
Normal market size:3,000    
Beta:-0.39    
£1=$1.22
*Berenberg forecasts