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Take advantage of Derwent's undeserved discount

The office space developer and landlord has been steadily pre-letting its development portfolio
November 14, 2019

London’s office developers and landlords have been punished by investors nervous of a Brexit-induced downturn and consequent decline in office occupancy. But for Derwent London (DLN), the owner of a high-quality West End office portfolio, vacancy rates have been falling, leases are being agreed comfortably ahead of estimated rental values (ERV), and borrowings look low. The pessimism implied by the discount the shares trade at compared with net asset value (NAV) per share is overdone in our view. That view is reinforced by the reduced development risk as properties under construction are pre-let and completed.   

IC TIP: Buy at 3550p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points

Attractive discount to NAV

Rents ahead of estimates

Low loan to value

Falling vacancy rates

Bear points

Brexit fears

Potential for slower NAV growth

Derwent has been sweating its development portfolio, gradually letting space across its three sites and boosting the portfolio’s NAV. Having completed and fully let the Brunel Building earlier this year, at the end of September it was left with 790,000 square foot (sq ft) under construction, 70 per cent of which was pre-let.  80 Charlotte Street is due for completion during the first half of 2020 and is 92 per cent pre-let. Derwent's Soho Place development, meanwhile, is 76 per cent pre-let and due for completion in the first half of 2022, as is the group's other active project, the Featherstone Building. So far this year, Derwent has agreed lettings totalling £33.5m on 486,600 sq ft of space, on average 7 per cent above December 2018 ERV. Meanwhile, vacancy rates at the end of September stood at just 0.6 per cent compared with 1.8 per cent at the end of December. 

Disposals of £182m – 6.2 per cent above their December 2018 valuation – also indicate solid demand for office space in the city. These proceeds have been partly invested back into funding developments as well as reducing debt. That, coupled with a 2 per cent rise in the value of the portfolio, meant the group's loan-to-value ratio stood at just 16.4 per cent at the end of September, based on property values at the half-year stage. That means the portfolio is more defensively positioned in the event there is a reduction in property valuations amid an economic downturn. 

However, while the gradual letting of developments has reduced the risk attached to the portfolio, it also means there is less potential for developments to boost rents and NAV in the years ahead.

DERWENT LONDON (DLN)   
ORD PRICE:3,550pMARKET VALUE:£3.97bn
TOUCH:3,548-3,550p12-MONTH HIGH:3,694pLOW: 2,775p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.2%TRADING PROPERTIES:£41m
DISCOUNT TO FORWARD NAV:13%NET DEBT:23%
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES:£5.18bn  
Year to 31 DecNet asset value (p)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2016*35519176.8104.0
2017371611094.059.7
2018377611698.965.8
2019**393412210672.4
2020**407813911979.6
% change+4+14+12+10
Normal market size:750   
Beta: 0.29   
*Excludes special dividend of 52p a share    
**Numis Securities forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures