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Tap into Morgan Sindall's momentum

The construction and regeneration specialist is bucking the wider industry slowdown
December 12, 2019

Investors have reason to be cautious about investing in the construction sector. Carillion’s shadow still looms large almost two years later and the latest IHS Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index points to falling output and less new work. That being said, Morgan Sindall (MGNS) looks to be a bright spot against the uncertain market backdrop. True, margins are modest, making it vulnerable to a downturn. But progress is being eked out through selective contract bidding, better risk management and improved operational delivery. Meanwhile, the fact that the group operates with negative working capital (-£37m at the half-year stage), due to it paying bills more slowly than it gets paid, keeps capital employed low and means the return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at 19 per cent; an indicator that Morgan Sindall is creating value for shareholders.

IC TIP: Buy at 1,446p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points

Net cash

Improving return on capital employed

Share price momentum

Possible election and Brexit boost

Bear points

Modest margins and cyclical

Director share sale

The company operates in areas such as highways, rail and education, and construction and infrastructure activities account for almost half of group revenue and a quarter of profit, with a secured order book of £2.4bn at the half-year stage underpinned by framework agreements. A more disciplined approach has seen a shift away from large, high-profile projects prone to setbacks. This spurred a first-half margin improvement from 1.7 per cent to 2 per cent, while adjusted operating profit jumped by almost a quarter to £13.9m on just 3 per cent sales growth. Further progress is anticipated for the full year, with the division is targeting a 3 per cent margin in the medium term.

Designing and fitting out commercial and public office spaces, the ‘Fit Out’ business generated a record £44m of adjusted operating profit last year. But amid tighter market conditions in the first half of 2019, the margin was squeezed by 0.4 percentage points to 4 per cent. More competitive single-stage procurement is exerting pressure as bidding companies must submit the full cost of projects upfront. Still, the group expects full-year adjusted operating profit to hit the higher end of its £30m-£35m target range, with over 70 per cent of the £331m secured order book weighted towards the second half.

Bolstered by cross-party political support for more social housing, partnership housing is a key growth area. Last year's trading was knocked by rising costs and a contract delay, but performance has improved under new management. Adjusted operating profit jumped by almost two-fifths to £6.4m in the first half, with the margin up 0.7 percentage points to 2.7 per cent. Average capital employed during the period was £137m, translating to a ROCE of 10 per cent, below the three-year average of 12 per cent and 20 per cent medium-term target. But assuming average capital employed of around £150m, Peel Hunt projects ROCE will reach 19.1 per cent in 2023, demonstrating the potential on offer.

Excluding lease liabilities, a £114m net cash position at the half-year stage is a key differentiator from indebted peers. Despite faster payments to suppliers – the average time to pay construction and infrastructure invoices has reduced from 44 to 36 days – the group recorded average daily net cash of £123m. For the full year, this is expected to exceed £100m, the third upgrade of the year.

MORGAN SINDALL (MGNS)   
ORD PRICE:1,446pMARKET VALUE:£647m 
TOUCH:1,444-1,448p12-MONTH HIGH:1,490pLOW:1,000p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:4.3%FORWARD PE RATIO:9 
NET ASSET VALUE:801p*NET CASH:£114m 
Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
20162.5645.08235.0
20172.7966.011545.0
20182.9782.014453.0
2019**3.0387.014758.0
2020**3.0590.015662.0
% change+1+3+6+7
Normal market size:1,000    
Beta:0.73    
*Includes intangible assets of £217m, or 482p a share
**Jefferies forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures