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Ferguson on track with demerger

The plumbing distributor probably thought that 2020 would be a highly significant year anyway, although perhaps not for what's developing as the primary reason
March 17, 2020

Management at Ferguson (FERG) had enough on its plate even prior to the global sell-off. The plumbing distributor is engaged in demerging Wolseley's UK operations, which should complete in 2020, while a near-term announcement is expected on a potential listing in the US.

IC TIP: Hold at 4,658p

What would life be like without UK-based Wolseley? Strip out its contribution and ongoing half-year trading profit was up 9.5 per cent to $782m (£638m). An intensified focus on cost control ensured that profit growth outstripped the rate of top-line expansion, while the gross margin remained steady at 30.2 per cent. Reported profits contracted due to a $19m exceptional charge and an impairment linked to an associate.

Comparative sales into the US residential and commercial sectors – which collectively account for 85 per cent of the group total – both crept up by 3 per cent. Management will be hoping that double-digit sales growth in the smaller civil/infrastructure segment represents the shape of things to come. Presumably, the legislative imperative for Donald Trump’s infrastructure bills has taken on new urgency of late.  

Liquidity, always a key consideration, will be analysed even more keenly than usual, given the current disruption to commercial life. Receivables, inventory and trade debtors were broadly flat on the 2019 half-year and the cash drag linked to acquisitions came in at $141m, against $589m in the corresponding interim period. Operating cash flow more than doubled to $636m, but an outflow of $350m linked to the purchase of treasury shares resulted in a reduction of cash/equivalents at the period end. Net debt (ex-lease liabilities) edged up slightly to $1.94bn, but it still represents 1.1 times cash profit, or 47 per cent of shareholders’ funds – manageable, at any rate.

Ferguson has agreed a larger, $1.1bn credit facility from a syndicate of 11 banks, which offers an additional buffer during the current crisis. The group’s chief executive, Kevin Murphy, declined to second-guess prospects through the remainder of FY2020, stating that “due to the dynamic situation unfolding with Covid-19 it is too early to understand its impact on current trading”. He appears cognisant of the need to keep shareholders on board, though, judging by the fact that a significant fall in reported net earnings was accompanied by a 7 per cent hike in the half-year dividend.     

FERGUSON (FERG)   
ORD PRICE:4,658pMARKET VALUE:£10.5bn
TOUCH:4,658-4,684p12-MONTH HIGH:7,696pLOW: 4,115p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.7%PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:1,827¢*NET DEBT:$3.39bn**
Half-year to 31 JanTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
201910.867923563.1
202011.064020767.5
% change+1-6-127.0
Ex-div:26 Mar   
Payment:30 Apr   
£1 = $1.23. *Includes intangible assets of $2.14bn, or 953¢ a share **Includes lease liabilities of $1.45bn