Pandemic-resilient real-estate stocks are hard to come by, but Safestore (SAFE) bears many of the hallmarks of a group with the mettle to withstand tougher market conditions. Occupancy levels and rental rates held steady during lockdown and the self-storage group even reported a rise in underlying revenue in May, compared with the same time last year. Continued strong cash generation and a healthy balance sheet have also enabled management to continue growing the dividend, recommending a 7 per cent rise in the half-year dividend in June, ahead of analyst expectations.
Robust rent collection
Healthy balance sheet
Scale benefits
Geographically diversifying
Shares at premium to NAV
Potential for occupancy decline
In the wake of lockdown being imposed at the end of March, Safestore’s core UK and Paris stores experienced an increase in customers moving out, but occupancy has since rebounded. Closing occupancy fell to 71.6 per cent at the end of April, down slightly on 71.9 per cent in 2019. However, by 15 June, closing group occupancy was up 1.3 per cent compared with April on a like-for-like basis, and revenue during that period was also up 0.4 per cent year on year. Rent collection has also remained close to historical norms, with the group receiving 96.9 per cent of April and May rents in the UK and 83.8 per cent of rent due in Paris, both down slightly the same time last year.
The UK self-storage market is relatively immature compared with other countries – the average supply of self-storage space per capita stand at 0.73 square feet (sq ft), against 9.4 sq ft in the US and 1.9 sq ft in Australia. But a lack of supply in space-constrained locations – 72 per cent of revenue is generated by stores in London, the south east of England and Paris – has helped drive up the average rate charged per sq ft. During the six months to April, the average rate rose 2.1 per cent and held firm in the UK and Paris as lockdown measures have begun to ease, rising 4.1 per cent and 2.63 per cent, respectively, in the six weeks to mid-June.
The group has benefited from the rising scale of its store portfolio – which outstrips listed peers Big Yellow (BYG) and Lok'nStore (LOK) – to boost the first-half underlying cash profit margin from 57 per cent to 58 per cent. It is also more geographically diverse, entering the Spanish market last year after acquiring OhMyBox – which brought with it four stores in Barcelona – as well as the Belgian and Dutch markets via its joint venture with private equity group Carlyle. As well as providing a less capital-intensive method for Safestore to enter new markets, it also earns fees for managing the investments on behalf of Carlyle.
Despite expansion, free cash flow rose 17 per cent during the first half of the year and has grown over the past nine consecutive years. Meanwhile, the loan-to-value ratio stood at 30 per cent, against a covenant limit of 60 per cent, and underlying cash profits cover underlying finance costs 8.6 times. It also has ample liquidity, with bank facilities of £158m and no borrowings to refinance before June 2023. The cost of debt stood at just 2.2 per cent during the first half.
SAFESTORE (SAFE) | ||||
ORD PRICE: | 740p | MARKET VALUE: | £1.56bn | |
TOUCH: | 737-741p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 887p | LOW: 501p |
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD: | 2.4% | DEVELOPMENT STOCK: | £15.6m | |
FORWARD PREMIUM TO NAV: | 56% | NET DEBT: | 53%* | |
INVESTMENT PROPERTIES: | £1.45bn |
Year to 31 Oct | Net asset value (p)** | Pre-tax profit (£m)** | Earnings per share (p)** | Dividend per share (p) |
2017 | 329 | 84.2 | 23.3 | 14.0 |
2018 | 400 | 92.2 | 26.8 | 16.3 |
2019 | 452 | 98.0 | 28.5 | 17.5 |
2020** | 463 | 101 | 29.2 | 17.7 |
2021** | 475 | 104 | 30.7 | 17.7 |
% change | +3 | +3 | +5 | |
Normal market size: | ||||
Beta: | 0.92 | |||
*Includes lease liabilities of £81.9m | ||||
**Peel Hunt forecasts, adjusted NAV, PTP and EPS figures |