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Ideas Farm: The new Cold War

Technology is front and centre of the tussle between the US and China, and a burgeoning ‘tech cold war’ could cost $3.5 trillion over the next five years
July 30, 2020

The US and China are currently locked in a battle for global supremacy and even a deadly pandemic has failed to prevent tensions from ratcheting up. Arguably on an inevitable collision course, the pressure has been amplified by US president Donald Trump’s trade war. As Mr Trump seeks to redress perceived imbalances, the repercussions have reverberated across international equities markets.

A key battleground is technology, and companies are finding themselves increasingly caught in the middle of this superpower struggle. Recently we have seen a step-up in the campaign against Huawei, TikTok has found itself at the centre of a national security storm and US tech players are navigating how to conduct business in Hong Kong and mainland China while satisfying both Washington and Beijing.

A new report by Deutsche Bank says we could ultimately end up with a “tech wall” – parallel US and Chinese tech regimes that split the world into two camps. If this ‘tech cold war’ continues unabated, Apjit Walia, Deutsche Bank’s global head of tech strategy, says it could cost $3.5 trillion (£2.7 trillion) over the next five years to decouple the existing tech infrastructure.

As this cold war unfolds, it has spurred a ‘homecoming’ for Chinese companies, particularly as US political machinations seek to limit their access to capital markets. E-commerce giants Alibaba (US:BABA) and JD.com (US:JD) and videogames maker NetEase (US:NTES) have already added secondary listings in Hong Kong, and more are expected to follow. Ant Financial – which operates Alipay, the world’s largest mobile and online payments platform – is forgoing the US for concurrent IPOs in Hong Kong and Shanghai and could make a $200bn market debut.

Amid the rush of new listings, the Hong Kong exchange has launched a new benchmark for tech stocks. Tracking 30 companies in total, the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) includes some of China’s most valuable businesses. The biggest constituents – Alibaba, internet giant Tencent (HK:0700), food delivery platform Meituan Dianping (HK:3690) and smartphone maker Xiaomi (HK:1810) – have a combined market capitalisation above $1.5 trillion and comprise a third of the value of the new index. Using historical prices, the HSTI would have been up by close to 50 per cent so far this year compared to just a 17 per cent gain for the Dow Jones US Technology Index.

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) to track the HSTI’s performance are now likely to emerge. As we begin to see a trickle away from the US, such ETFs would widen the options to gain exposure to Chinese tech stocks. With Muddy Waters notching another win against Luckin Coffee (US:LK), UK investors may well be nervous about looking to China. Although if you peruse the ideas farm this week, you’ll see that Alibaba and Tencent both feature in the list of fund manager’s top global tech favourites. Indeed, both are holdings of the Polar Capital Technology Trust  (GB0004220025) which currently straddles both sides of the aforementioned ‘tech wall’.

Sticking to the tech theme, in this week’s tips section you will find Computacenter (CCC). With a surge in demand for IT equipment and services to enable remote working, analysts have turned more bullish on the company’s prospects, bumping up their earnings forecasts.

Meanwhile pharma giant Roche (CH:ROG) – another top fund manager pick – should also be able to capitalise on the current situation through its Covid-19 testing kits, complementing its wider portfolio of therapies and diagnostic tools. Elsewhere, retailer Topps Tiles (TPT) could experience a boost from the stamp duty cut, while Touchstone Exploration (TXP) has the potential to float higher as its Cascadura onshore gas project moves towards production.

 

Click here to view the tables in PDF form

 

 

New 52-week highs   
NameTIDMPrice% from high
JTCJTC485p0.0%
Gresham HouseGHE693p0.4%
Civitas SocialCSH114p0.5%
Clipper LogisticsCLG338p0.6%
Games Workshop GroupGAW9,375p0.8%
Octopus Renewables InfraORIT114p0.9%
Capital Gearing Trust PlcCGT4,480p0.9%
BBGIBBGI169p0.9%
Flutter EntertainmentFLTR11,630p1.1%
YouGovYOU810p1.2%
ComputacenterCCC1,973p1.4%
Jubilee Metals GroupJLP5p1.5%
Sterling EnergySEY12p1.6%
SEGROSGRO936p1.7%
SDCL Energy EfficiencySEIT111p1.8%
IntegraFin HoldingsIHP545p1.8%
Cello HealthCLL162p1.8%
Croda InternationalCRDA5,800p1.9%
CapitalCAPD78p1.9%
CQS Natural ResourcesCYN93p2.2%
Martin Currie Global PortMNP326p2.2%
Schroder Asian TotalATR384p2.3%
CentaminCEY207p2.4%
Renewables InfrastructureTRIG136p2.4%
BunzlBNZL2,245p2.6%
Reckitt Benckiser GroupRB7,800p2.6%
Witan Pacific Invt TrWPC368p2.6%
Spirax-Sarco EngineeringSPX10,500p2.6%
JPMorgan Global Core RealJARA110p2.7%
JPMorgan Global Core RealJARA110p2.7%
Baker Steel Res TrustBSRT61p2.9%
HomeServeHSV1,331p2.9%
JP Morgan Emerging MktsJMG1,058p2.9%
Smithson Investment TrustSSON1,512p3.0%
SercoSRP164p3.0%
LSE GroupLSE8,372p3.0%
Montanaro Europn Small TrMTE1,300p3.0%

Source: FactSet, as at 30 Jul 2020

 

New 52-week lows   
NameTIDMPrice% from low
SeverfieldSFR58p1.4%
Gresham TechnologiesGHT104p1.4%
Real Estate InvestorsRLE30p1.7%
HSBC HoldingsHSBA353p2.1%
STV GroupSTVG220p2.3%
RotalaROL20p2.5%
PittardsPTD39p2.6%
Advanced Medical Sol GrpAMS200p2.7%
Fuller, Smith & TurnerFSTA500p2.8%
TOC Property Backed LndngPBLT86p2.9%

Source: FactSet, as at 30 Jul 2020

 

Shorts   
CompanyShort InterestNo. Shorters1wk chg in short interest
HAMMERSON PLC14.3%111.2%
Royal Mail Plc9.1%7-0.4%
METRO BANK PLC8.9%4-0.3%
PREMIER OIL PLC8.7%30.0%
CINEWORLD GROUP8.3%90.8%
TULLOW OIL PLC7.8%5-0.5%
PEARSON PLC6.0%5-0.7%
WEIR GROUP PLC/THE5.7%60.4%
SAINSBURY (J) PLC5.6%40.2%
DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC5.5%70.0%
BLUE PRISM GROUP PLC5.5%60.0%
PETROFAC LTD5.5%40.1%
GW PHARMACEUTICALS PLC5.2%40.0%
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC5.2%10.0%
FUTURE PLC5.0%30.0%
PETS AT HOME GROUP PLC4.9%20.0%
BABCOCK INTL GROUP PLC4.9%30.0%
IQE PLC4.8%30.0%
TUI AG4.4%50.5%
MITIE GROUP PLC4.2%1NEW
VODAFONE GROUP PLC4.0%40.0%
CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC3.9%4-0.7%
SMITH (DAVID S) HOLDINGS PLC3.8%50.0%
DIGNITY PLC3.7%30.0%
CAPITA PLC3.7%5-0.1%
MICRO FOCUS INTERNATIONAL3.6%30.0%
WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS3.5%3-0.4%
KEYWORDS STUDIOS PLC3.5%40.0%
ASCENTIAL PLC3.4%4-0.6%
A.G. Barr PLC3.3%3-0.1%
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC3.2%20.0%
Primary Health Properties PLC3.1%40.0%
WOOD GROUP (JOHN) PLC3.1%50.0%
HURRICANE ENERGY PLC3.1%3NEW
AGGREKO PLC3.0%30.1%
ULTRA ELECTRONICS HLDGS PLC3.0%10.0%
GVC Holdings Plc3.0%4NEW
RESTAURANT GROUP PLC2.9%3-0.1%
ASHMORE GROUP PLC2.9%30.1%
VICTREX PLC2.8%30.0%
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC2.8%20.1%
VALARIS PLC2.8%10.0%
HISCOX LTD2.6%20.0%
AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC2.6%40.0%
AA PLC2.5%20.0%

Source: FCA, as at 30 July 2020

 

Upgrades
 FWD EPS CHG
NameTIDM1mth3mth1yr
Yellow CakeYCA3126.5%3117.6%4026%
ASOSASC536.5%-37%
Draper EspritGROW218.4%76.4%-20%
BeazleyBEZ114.1%13.2%-80%
System1 GroupSYS1105.3%105.3%27%
TotallyTLY96.7%96.7%105%
OnTheMarketOTMP93.3%--
United Oil & GasUOG76.8%--
ZOO Digital GroupZOO74.5%--61%
Equals GroupEQLS74.0%42.9%0%
Atalaya MiningATYM64.8%103.0%-24%
WincantonWIN64.5%-39.9%-40%
Panoply HoldingsTPX63.5%30.8%15%
Luceco PlcLUCE62.7%163.5%18%
Hollywood Bowl GroupBOWL61.3%-8.6%-72%
CVS GroupCVSG57.6%21.4%-15%
LoopUp GroupLOOP57.6%232.2%133%
RMRM55.0%-76.7%-76%
EKF DiagnosticsEKF50.6%100.7%120%
BarclaysBARC50.3%-58.0%-91%
TymanTYMN47.1%-15.9%-32%
NumisNUM45.8%-38%
Blancco Technology GroupBLTG37.9%20.8%30%
HaysHAS37.3%16.9%-60%
ECO Animal Health GroupEAH35.1%39.6%-57%
DWF GroupDWF34.6%-25.9%-1%
AntofagastaANTO34.6%116.7%-47%
3i Group PlcIII33.5%--38%
Wey EducationWEY33.3%33.3%-
RedcentricRCN32.7%32.7%44%
FresnilloFRES31.6%41.7%32%
CMC MarketsCMCX31.2%7.2%320%
Manolete PartnersMANO30.9%38.8%31%
Up Global Sourcing HoldingsUPGS30.9%-15.3%-5%
Royal Dutch ShellRDSA29.7%-35.1%-84%
Royal Dutch ShellRDSB29.1%-37.2%-83%
ContourGlobal PlcGLO28.6%11.7%-35%
NextNXT27.9%-56.9%-74%
Knight Group HoldingsKGH27.8%15.8%15%
Just Eat Takeaway.comJET26.8%43.8%-
KingfisherKGF24.8%-0.7%-9%
Jarvis SecuritiesJIM24.4%34.3%48%
Kainos GroupKNOS21.5%12.0%12%
TI Fluid SystemsTIFS21.3%-58.0%-90%
Robert WaltersRWA18.6%19.0%-82%
Liontrust Asset MgmtLIO18.2%18.2%20%
Shearwater GroupSWG17.9%45.2%-
Motorpoint GroupMOTR17.3%17.3%22%
FocusriteTUNE16.9%24.2%49%
GVC HoldingsGVC16.5%-2.2%-18%
HelicalHLCL16.0%-16.1%-3%
G4SGFS15.8%4.6%-34%
Nucleus Financial GroupNUC14.8%-6.3%-28%
National Express GroupNEX14.1%-70.2%-81%
Rathbone BrothersRAT13.7%-8.2%-24%
Associated British FoodsABF13.4%-6.5%-45%
CentricaCNA12.8%-6.6%-44%
IMIIMI12.7%8.4%-11%
ErgomedERGO12.3%14.6%102%
Connect GroupCNCT12.1%12.4%-5%
Plus500PLUS11.8%11.4%134%
B&M European Value RetailBME11.4%46.5%41%
Ariana ResourcesAAU11.1%11.1%-25%
Civitas SocialCSH11.0%10.4%3%
Brooks MacDonald GroupBRK10.9%13.1%3%
RenishawRSW10.3%15.4%-56%
SercoSRP9.6%12.5%29%
Impact HealthcareIHR9.2%7.2%-
Impax Asset Management GpIPX9.2%13.1%29%
Curtis Banks GroupCBP8.1%1.7%-11%
ComputacenterCCC7.7%9.8%19%
Brewin DolphinBRW7.7%0.1%-7%
NetcallNET7.6%2.8%47%
Pan African ResourcesPAF7.6%9.9%87%
Gear4music HoldingsG4M7.5%179.3%338%
M&GMNG7.4%7.8%-
FerrexpoFXPO7.1%22.6%-55%
PersimmonPSN6.8%-6.4%-31%
ChesnaraCSN6.7%6.7%-15%
Morses ClubMCL6.7%-2.5%-19%
Grafton GroupGFTU6.4%-43.6%-61%
RecordREC6.2%-25.9%-4%
Urban Logistics REITSHED5.9%-10.8%-9%
CRHCRH5.8%-2.7%-25%
St James's PlaceSTJ5.7%6.9%15%
Dunelm GroupDNLM5.6%0.0%-16%
Begbies Traynor GroupBEG5.6%5.7%9%
GlencoreGLEN5.5%-20.3%-79%
AJ BellAJB5.5%6.6%16%
KAZ MineralsKAZ5.3%20.0%-17%
TristelTSTL5.1%5.1%19%
Empiric StudentESP5.1%-19.8%-48%
Urban&CivicUANC5.1%78.6%-41%
Gamma CommunicationsGAMA4.6%4.5%33%
ApplegreenAPGN4.5%4.5%24%
Drax GroupDRX4.5%3.6%14%
Sage GroupSGE4.5%-2.6%-11%
ElectrocomponentsECM4.5%-22.7%-29%
Ninety One PlcN914.4%-8.7%-
IofinaIOF4.2%145.5%57%
SchrodersSDR4.0%8.7%-14%
Oxford InstrumentsOXIG4.0%-19.9%-26%
Jupiter Fund ManagementJUP3.9%10.0%-27%
IdoxIDOX3.9%-3.2%33%
Berkeley Group HoldingsBKG3.9%-2.7%-11%
Photo-MePHTM3.9%35.9%-5%
Palace CapitalPCA3.8%-18.8%-25%
PlaytechPTEC3.6%-26.3%-65%
McBrideMCB3.5%20.0%-11%
QuilterQLT3.4%3.8%-39%
Premier Miton GroupPMI3.4%10.8%-22%
8888883.3%28.0%3%
Volution GroupFAN3.3%-4.0%-27%
BunzlBNZL3.2%15.7%-9%
RBG HoldingsRBGP3.2%3.2%26%
FutureFUTR3.2%3.6%55%
Ashtead GroupAHT3.1%-34.2%-41%
Euromoney Instl InvestorERM3.1%-30.5%-51%
Rentokil InitialRTO3.1%0.4%-15%

Source: FactSet, as at 29 July 2020

 

Downgrades
 FWD EPS CHG
NameTIDM1mth3mth1yr
SynconaSYNC-99.8%--100%
Mission GroupTMG-96.0%-96.0%-96%
Arbuthnot Banking GroupARBB-94.3%-94.4%-93%
HuntingHTG-94.2%-98.9%-100%
Stagecoach GroupSGC-88.4%-88.9%-91%
Melrose IndustriesMRO-86.2%-91.9%-96%
SeniorSNR-84.8%-85.9%-96%
Halfords GroupHFD-78.5%-76.3%-80%
JD Sports FashionJD-63.8%-63.9%-62%
Jadestone EnergyJSE-63.2%--98%
Kenmare ResourcesKMR-60.3%-65.6%-81%
Mears GroupMER-57.8%-66.0%-71%
Forterra PlcFORT-54.3%-78.0%-83%
HMLHMLH-53.2%--53%
Speedy HireSDY-52.8%-78.5%-79%
Shanta GoldSHG-52.4%-52.0%-15%
Renewi PlcRWI-49.4%-73.4%-79%
Advanced Medical Sol GrpAMS-43.3%-46.5%-55%
4Imprint GroupFOUR-41.3%-81.2%-87%
PageGroupPAGE-40.0%-54.0%-87%
InterContinental Hotels GroupIHG-39.3%-65.5%-78%
D4t4 SolutionsD4T4-39.2%-39.2%-52%
Countryside PropertiesCSP-37.8%-53.8%-57%
Intu PropertiesINTU-36.4%-56.5%-82%
GattacaGATC-36.2%-35.0%-
Frenkel Topping GroupFEN-35.7%-35.7%-31%
MJ GleesonGLE-31.6%-80.0%-87%
IG Design GroupIGR-31.6%-34.3%-35%
Polypipe GroupPLP-31.5%-51.2%-59%
Lloyds Banking GroupLLOY-30.6%-62.2%-86%
Picton Property IncomePCTN-30.2%-21.9%-24%
TrifastTRI-28.9%-28.5%-49%
Bank of Georgia GroupBGEO-28.8%-28.9%-50%
RPS GroupRPS-28.7%-28.4%-57%
Crest NicholsonCRST-28.3%-51.1%-75%
RedrowRDW-26.8%-32.9%-49%
DS SmithSMDS-26.7%-27.4%-34%
St Modwen PropertiesSMP-26.7%-50.3%-41%
GB GroupGBG-26.5%-25.3%-22%
Hochschild MiningHOC-25.7%-45.4%-55%
MITIE GroupMTO-24.7%-47.6%-55%
MarshallsMSLH-23.9%-37.6%-48%
Serica EnergySQZ-23.6%32.5%-76%
Serabi GoldSRB-23.4%-20.4%110%
IG Group HoldingsIGG-22.2%-18.0%22%
Mediclinic InternationalMDC-22.2%-53.4%-54%
Go-Ahead GroupGOG-21.5%-50.1%-63%
McKay SecuritiesMCKS-20.6%--26%
TBC Bank GroupTBCG-20.5%-31.8%-52%
Biffa PlcBIFF-20.2%-85.0%-86%
Vistry GroupVTY-19.5%-28.7%-37%
Anexo GroupANX-18.0%-18.9%-8%
CalisenCLSN-17.6%3.1%-
Signature AviationSIG-17.1%-41.4%-69%
SavillsSVS-17.0%-44.2%-39%
Midwich GroupMIDW-16.9%-14.4%-19%
Vivo EnergyVVO-16.7%-52.2%-58%
IbstockIBST-16.6%-56.5%-71%
InstemINS-16.3%3.0%-2%
PetropavlovskPOG-16.2%208.3%1658%
Breedon GrpBREE-15.9%-61.2%-62%
RicardoRCDO-15.6%-32.9%-45%
Pennon GroupPNN-14.9%-35.1%-39%
Taylor WimpeyTW-14.6%-38.3%-53%
Kier GroupKIE-14.6%-28.0%-64%
Close Brothers GroupCBG-14.1%-33.5%-48%
AEW UK REITAEWU-13.9%-9.0%-9%
FRP Advisory GroupFRP-13.8%--
AbcamABC-13.8%-16.5%-44%
ShaftesburySHB-13.8%-36.1%-48%
Burberry GroupBRBY-13.5%-26.3%-45%
Gem DiamondsGEMD-13.1%-35.4%-79%
SSESSE-13.0%-9.2%-17%
SimplyBiz GroupSBIZ-12.4%-12.4%-6%
ElementisELM-12.2%-24.4%-55%
ZotefoamsZTF-11.5%-11.0%-41%
BodycoteBOY-11.5%-15.5%-49%
Burford CapitalBUR-11.5%-29.9%-44%
LancashireLRE-11.3%-31.9%-34%
Warehouse REITWHR-11.0%-10.9%14%
Frasers GroupFRAS-10.7%-27.4%-25%
InformaINF-10.6%-37.5%-63%
PetrofacPFC-10.5%-43.0%-67%
Hummingbird ResourcesHUM-10.1%--9%
IMImobile PlcIMO-10.1%-10.1%-19%
STV GroupSTVG-9.8%-30.5%-38%
Bushveld MineralsBMN-9.6%-18.6%-60%
Capital & Counties PropsCAPC-9.6%-65.5%-62%
MeggittMGGT-9.5%-22.6%-46%
Keywords StudiosKWS-9.3%-6.5%-24%
Sylvania PlatinumSLP-9.2%-14.8%132%
Medica GroupMGP-9.1%-13.2%-31%
Coats GroupCOA-8.9%-47.6%-72%
Vodafone GroupVOD-8.8%4.8%-11%
Pearson PlcPSON-8.7%-16.1%-49%
ClarksonCKN-8.7%-8.7%-17%
Man GroupEMG-8.5%-13.4%-29%
Network International HoldingsNETW-8.1%-48.7%-52%
Smith & NephewSN-8.1%-23.4%-35%
CapitaCPI-8.0%-24.4%-52%
Vitec GroupVTC-7.7%-68.1%-87%
Clinigen GroupCLIN-7.4%-8.3%19%
Dixons CarphoneDC-7.3%-18.1%-38%
Redde NorthgateREDD-7.0%-8.5%-20%
Airtel AfricaAAF-7.0%-6.8%-
Standard Life AberdeenSLA-6.9%-2.0%-31%
Intermediate Capital GrpICP-6.7%-18.3%-27%
discoverIE GroupDSCV-6.6%-20.2%-26%
PorvairPRV-6.3%-15.4%-22%
Standard CharteredSTAN-6.2%-41.5%-61%
National GridNG-6.1%-7.2%-7%
TescoTSCO-6.0%-18.2%-22%
Micro Focus InternationalMCRO-6.0%-6.4%-33%
MarloweMRL-6.0%3.3%6%
AvingtransAVG-5.9%-5.9%19%
Inspecs GroupSPEC-5.8%-73.5%-
GCP Student LivingDIGS-5.7%-17.8%-23%
Pets At HomePETS-5.7%-30.9%-23%
Smurfit Kappa GroupSKG-5.7%-6.6%-32%
Craneware PlcCRW-5.6%-7.1%-11%
Paragon Banking GroupPAG-5.6%-15.3%-35%
AscentialASCL-5.5%-43.2%-77%
Moneysupermarket com GrpMONY-5.4%-16.8%-18%
UDG HealthcareUDG-5.2%-12.7%-14%
Johnson MattheyJMAT-5.2%-27.3%-39%
BHP GroupBHP-5.0%-1.2%-7%
VictrexVCT-5.0%-20.6%-29%
Legal & General GroupLGEN-5.0%-7.2%-13%
BellwayBWY-5.0%-15.1%-38%
Anglo American PlcAAL-4.9%-6.8%-45%
HalmaHLMA-4.9%-5.0%-8%
Empyrean EnergyEME-4.8%--
Telit CommunicationsTCM-4.8%-3.9%167%
Water IntelligenceWATR-4.8%1.4%8%
BATM Advanced CommBVC-4.8%66.5%126%
VolexVLX-4.8%-15.7%7%
Caledonia MiningCMCL-4.8%44.5%188%
Kape TechnologiesKAPE-4.8%-4.6%97%
Griffin MiningGFM-4.8%-50.3%-57%
600 GroupSIXH-4.8%-9.0%-77%
Amiad Water SystemsAFS-4.8%--
MP Evans GroupMPE-4.8%-25.7%13%
BOKUBOKU-4.8%17.2%38%
MJ Hudson GroupMJH-4.8%25.0%-
RSA Insurance GroupRSA-4.7%-8.3%-8%
YouGovYOU-4.7%0.0%17%
AvastAVST-4.5%-4.2%5%
John Wood GroupWG-4.5%-12.7%-53%
Direct Line Insurance GrpDLG-4.4%-8.4%-16%
PayPointPAY-4.4%-19.9%-21%
AB DynamicsABDP-4.3%-8.3%-5%
Strix GroupKETL-4.3%-5.7%-4%
Virgin Money UKVMUK-4.3%-38.3%-82%
Chaarat GoldCGH-4.2%--57%
HSBC HoldingsHSBA-4.1%-28.7%-63%
Howden Joinery GroupHWDN-3.9%-39.8%-44%
AstraZenecaAZN-3.8%-2.5%10%
ITVITV-3.8%-9.8%-36%
RightmoveRMV-3.6%-20.1%-41%
NicholsNICL-3.5%-5.7%-32%
Rank GroupRNK-3.3%-33.6%-36%
Spirent CommunicationsSPT-3.3%-3.4%14%
MondiMNDI-3.3%-8.7%-38%
Severn TrentSVT-3.2%-21.8%-22%
Steppe CementSTCM-3.2%-59.3%-61%
Fevertree DrinksFEVR-3.2%-5.8%-35%
Hikma PharmaceuticalsHIK-3.1%-2.4%13%
AggrekoAGK-3.1%-28.8%-48%
Equiniti GroupEQN-3.1%-13.2%-32%

Source: FactSet, as at 29 July 2020

 

Click here to view the tables in PDF form