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Touchstone having a gas

The dual-listed gas play has a strong contender in its Trinidadian Cascadura prospect and the cash to make it into production
July 30, 2020

Shares in oil and gas companies on the verge of production are out of fashion and should mostly be avoided in 2020. Yet some look as though they have a reasonable chance of making it to positive cash flow without loading up on debt or diluting shareholders excessively.

IC TIP: Buy at 74p
Tip style
Speculative
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points

Cascadura asset has major potential 

Low funding requirements to reach production 

Existing revenue

Exploration wells coming this year

Bear points

Cascadura not yet producing 

Weak gas price

Touchstone Exploration (TXP) may be one such driller. The Calgary-based company already produces and explores for oil and gas in Trinidad. It currently needs $16m (£12.4m) to get its Cascadura onshore gas project going, with the aim of producing around 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), using the proved and probable reserve estimate. Tightening that up to just the proved reserves, Touchstone could spend £12m on a 10,000 boepd asset. 

Gas prices are not strong currently, at well under $2 per million thermal units (mbtu), although supply is already falling in the US due to lower prices. Meanwhile, Touchstone’s independent reserves evaluation, published this month, forecasts that Cascadura’s production will be sold at $2.55/mbtu next year. That might be too optimistic, but Rystad Energy, a consultancy, thinks US gas production has fallen by around 8 per cent since the end of 2019, suggesting a price recovery could be on the cards. 

Touchstone's chief executive, Paul Baay, says direct sales to Trinidad and Tobago’s National Gas Company (NGC) will keep prices at least at the level forecast in the reserves evaluation. The company, which has a primary listing in Canada as well as trading on London's Aim, is confident of getting the Cascadura project into production in mid-2021. 

Usually these claims need to be taken with a shaker of salt, given the need to raise money. But Touchstone raised $11.6m earlier this year to cover its exploration costs and has a credit line of $20m set up. Some of that development money will be needed elsewhere, however. Touchstone has two more onshore exploration wells, which will cost $4m each, that it aims to complete this year. The Chinook target should spud in the coming weeks, then Cascadura Deep in the coming months. 

This is where Mr Baay steers away from the usual Aim developer pitch, reminding shareholders that the company may not have a third positive well result in a row. It was the Cascadura result earlier this year that saw Touchstone's shares climb a third in a day in February and then make it over 70p this month, from 22p at the start of the year. 

Touchstone is at a mid-point on the ideal evolution from explorer to gas producer. It has its reserves and its buyer in the NGC. The NGC is also building most of the infrastructure needed to get the gas from Cascadura into its network, cutting development costs. The island has the major Atlantic LNG gas refinery, but Touchstone is skipping that by handing its product straight to the NGC. 

Touchstone Exploration Inc (TXP)   
ORD PRICE:74pMARKET VALUE:£136m  
TOUCH:7-74p12-MONTH HIGH:76pLOW:10p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:NILFORWARD PE RATIO:13  
NET ASSET VALUE:16pNET DEBT:29%  
Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profitEarnings per shareDividend per share (ȼ) 
201827.86.1-1.90nil 
201927.65.91.40nil 
2020*17.3-3.6-2.90nil 
2021*44.619.27.50nil 
 +158 
BETA:1.7    
*FinnCap forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS; £1 = $1.292