Join our community of smart investors

Ideas Farm: Show some metal

Gold miners have been a frequent feature of the Ideas Farm over recent month and the recent sell off is a reminder of these are riskly bets despite all their allure.
August 13, 2020
by Algy

A noteworthy feature in the Ideas Farm over recent months has been the frequent presence of shares in gold miners in our tables monitoring broker upgrades and share prices testing 52-week highs. This is a reflection of a rising gold price and the growing consensus that there is more to come. Yet a sharp sell-off this week serves as a reminder of the speculative nature of these investments. Despite gold’s reputation as a safe-haven and hedge against all manner of woes, for most investors the yellow metal is not an appropriate portfolio mainstay.

The current allure of gold is a symbol of the strange times we live in. An unusual concoction of economic conditions and expectations exist as a result of the response to coronavirus. All of them would seem to favour gold. These include: expectations of rising inflation; rock-bottom interest rates; a global recession; and a growing belief the dollar will devalue, especially against the euro. 

Classic economics would suggest such a range of conditions are highly unlikely to co-exist. High inflation expectations, for example, are normally associated with rising interest rates rather than near-zero ones. Global recessions meanwhile are often associated with a rush to the safety of the dollar not away from it. 

However, the presence of so many seemingly contradictory factors has been made possible due to enforced economic inactivity, coupled with government stimulus, and most significantly, massive bond purchases by central banks. These bond purchases keep interest rates low while flooding the system with new money that has the potential to stoke inflation. 

Given gold does not pay out any income, lower interest rates on government bonds makes its zero yield relatively more attractive. Meanwhile, gold has long been regarded as a hedge against both inflation and dollar weakness, and it is often seen as a store of value in hard economic times. 

A key reason for gold’s reputation as an inflation and dollar hedge is that unlike “fiat” currencies, it is hard to boost supply. However, another way it differs from “fiat” currencies is that there is no legal basis for its use in exchange. Indeed, the conundrum for gold bugs is that beyond the perceived value put on the metal by investors, there is fairly limited practical use for the stuff. 

This means gold’s apparent safety as a hedge tends to go hand in hand with price volatility. For shares in gold miners, the volatility is magnified by the fact that, because their production costs are largely fixed, their profits are highly sensitive to movements in the metal’s price. The volatility can be more pronounced when price expectations become very one sided. Over the last week, some relatively innocuous positive vaccine news and a rise in US treasury yields have been cited as factors causing a sharp correction, which at the time of writing, has knock the gold  7.4 per cent. Meanwhile the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, which tracks gold miner shares, has plunged 12.2 per cent.

Whatever gold’s merits, investors should be ready for more volatility, especially based on the unpredictable nature of what is arguably the best reason for holding gold: rising inflation and possible currency debasement. While strong arguments can be made that inflation lies ahead, the same was true last time gold surged during the credit crunch but expectations were ultimately confounded. Circumstances are different this time, with much of the money being created by central banks ending up in people's pockets rather than on bank’s balance sheets, but that does not necessarily mean the outcome will be different. Sadly, the future remains stubbornly unpredictable and gold is likely to remain volatile.

 

Click here to view the tables in PDF form.

 

 

New 52-week highs   
NameTIDMPrice% from hi
BunzlBNZL2,374p0.0%
AO WorldAO184p0.0%
Augmentum FintAUGM117p0.0%
Best of the BestBOTB1,800p0.0%
Croda InternationalCRDA5,906p0.1%
KingfisherKGF271p0.1%
Herald Investment TrustHRI1,708p0.2%
Hipgnosis SongsSONG123p0.4%
Capital Gearing Trust PlcCGT4,490p0.7%
RWSRWS715p0.7%
Montanaro Europn Small TrMTE1,360p0.7%
AvastAVST600p0.7%
IntegraFin HoldingsIHP555p0.9%
RenishawRSW5,290p1.0%
Spirax-Sarco EngineeringSPX10,660p1.1%
YouGovYOU850p1.2%
JLEN Env Assets GroupJLEN123p1.2%
AntofagastaANTO1,113p1.2%
Schroder Asian TotalATR389p1.3%
BBGIBBGI170p1.3%
CQS Natural ResourcesCYN95p1.3%
KAZ MineralsKAZ590p1.3%
Tritax Big BoxBBOX160p1.4%
Luceco PlcLUCE160p1.4%
Ocado GroupOCDO2,238p1.4%
Pacific Horizon Invt TrPHI540p1.5%
Hastings Group HoldingsHSTG252p1.5%
XP PowerXPP4,480p1.5%
Concurrent TechnologiesCNC124p1.6%
Baillie Gifford ShinBGS194p1.6%
SoftcatSCT1,384p1.6%
B&M European Value RetailBME482p1.6%
Impax Environmental MktsIEM355p1.8%
JTCJTC489p1.8%
HomeServeHSV1,346p1.8%
LondonMetric PropertyLMP241p2.0%
SDCL Energy EfficiencySEIT111p2.0%
Admiral GroupADM2,525p2.0%
SopheonSPE955p2.1%
JPMorgan Global Core RealJARA110p2.2%
JPMorgan Global Core RealJARA110p2.2%
Flutter EntertainmentFLTR11,800p2.2%
LSE GroupLSE8,546p2.3%
Bankers Invt TrustBNKR1,018p2.3%
Frontier DevelopmentsFDEV2,085p2.3%
Fidelity China SpecialFCSS311p2.4%
ComputacenterCCC2,026p2.4%
Bail Giff EurBGEU1,155p2.5%
TreattTET536p2.5%
Clipper LogisticsCLG380p2.6%
Octopus Renewables InfraORIT113p2.6%
GB GroupGBG785p2.6%
Jubilee Metals GroupJLP5p2.7%
Spirent CommunicationsSPT301p2.7%
Gore Street EnergyGSF106p2.8%
Witan Pacific Invt TrWPC367p2.8%
Gresham HouseGHE680p2.9%

Source: FactSet (12 August 2020)

 

New 52-week lows   
NameTIDMPrice% from lo
ReachRCH54p1.3%
Real Estate InvestorsRLE28p2.3%
TOC Property Backed LndngPBLT86p2.9%

Source: FactSet (12 August 2020)

 

Shorts   
CompanyShort InterestNo. Shorters1wk chg in short interest
HAMMERSON PLC14.4%110.5%
Royal Mail Plc9.6%80.0%
METRO BANK PLC9.3%50.4%
CINEWORLD GROUP8.8%90.0%
PREMIER OIL PLC8.7%30.0%
TULLOW OIL PLC7.6%5-0.2%
SAINSBURY (J) PLC7.0%60.2%
PEARSON PLC6.2%5-0.3%
PETROFAC LTD5.6%4-0.5%
DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC5.5%7-0.1%
BLUE PRISM GROUP PLC5.0%50.0%
BABCOCK INTL GROUP PLC5.0%30.1%
PETS AT HOME GROUP PLC4.9%20.0%
IQE PLC4.7%3-0.1%
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC4.6%1-0.9%
FUTURE PLC4.6%30.0%
TUI AG4.5%5-0.4%
WEIR GROUP PLC/THE4.4%5-0.9%
DIGNITY PLC4.2%30.2%
VODAFONE GROUP PLC4.0%40.0%
ASCENTIAL PLC4.0%50.5%
WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS3.9%4-0.1%
CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC3.8%40.0%
MICRO FOCUS INTERNATIONAL3.6%30.0%
GVC Holdings Plc3.6%50.5%
ASHMORE GROUP PLC3.5%40.0%
WOOD GROUP (JOHN) PLC3.5%60.0%
KEYWORDS STUDIOS PLC3.5%40.0%
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC3.5%30.7%
CAPITA PLC3.4%40.2%
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC3.2%20.0%
HURRICANE ENERGY PLC3.1%30.0%
Primary Health Properties PLC3.1%40.0%
SMITH (DAVID S) HOLDINGS PLC3.0%4-0.6%
ULTRA ELECTRONICS HLDGS PLC3.0%10.0%
AGGREKO PLC2.9%3-0.1%
VICTREX PLC2.9%30.1%
RESTAURANT GROUP PLC2.9%30.0%
VALARIS PLC2.8%10.0%
AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC2.6%40.0%
HISCOX LTD2.5%20.0%
A.G. Barr PLC2.4%3-0.6%
VITEC GROUP PLC (THE)2.4%2NEW
CREST NICHOLSON HLDGS PLC2.4%3NEW
AA PLC2.3%2-0.2%

Source:FCA, 12 August 2020

 

Upgrades
Wednesday, 12 August 2020FWD EPS CHG
NameTIDM1mth3mth1yr
ASOSASC309.7%-66%
BarclaysBARC181.3%12.5%-81%
Belvoir GroupBLV141.0%141.0%18%
Hochschild MiningHOC140.3%-7.8%-19%
BeazleyBEZ135.2%131.9%-80%
ZOO Digital GroupZOO77.4%73.1%-62%
Sylvania PlatinumSLP74.2%30.5%139%
WincantonWIN64.5%-39.1%-40%
Luceco PlcLUCE63.1%165.0%18%
EKF DiagnosticsEKF58.6%111.3%131%
LoopUp GroupLOOP57.8%57.8%133%
CVS GroupCVSG57.6%21.4%-14%
NextNXT55.3%14.5%-62%
Atalaya MiningATYM50.5%100.3%-27%
Allergy TherapeuticsAGY50.0%--
LSL Property ServicesLSL49.0%0.9%-21%
Hollywood Bowl GroupBOWL44.7%-18.2%-75%
Panoply HoldingsTPX38.5%38.5%2%
Blancco Technology GroupBLTG37.9%20.8%31%
Wey EducationWEY33.3%33.3%-
RedcentricRCN32.7%32.7%44%
FresnilloFRES32.4%55.2%54%
Gear4music HoldingsG4M31.6%241.8%436%
Clipper LogisticsCLG30.2%27.4%-
Kainos GroupKNOS30.1%19.9%19%
CentricaCNA29.9%-0.4%-35%
Phoenix Group HoldingsPHNX29.7%15.9%24%
Knight Group HoldingsKGH27.8%15.8%15%
3i Group PlcIII27.6%--24%
FerrexpoFXPO26.5%46.7%-42%
HaysHAS26.0%16.9%-60%
Hargreaves ServicesHSP25.3%25.3%40%
AntofagastaANTO24.5%124.7%-46%
Royal Dutch ShellRDSA24.4%-1.9%-79%
Jarvis SecuritiesJIM24.4%24.4%48%
Royal Dutch ShellRDSB23.1%-4.0%-78%
Keller GroupKLR22.6%14.5%-14%
Plus500PLUS22.1%3.8%142%
Breedon GrpBREE20.9%-51.2%-54%
IdeagenIDEA19.7%19.7%6%
GVC HoldingsGVC19.5%14.9%-15%
KingfisherKGF19.3%0.2%-8%
ContourGlobal PlcGLO19.2%25.9%-12%
G4SGFS18.0%23.2%-32%
Motorpoint GroupMOTR17.3%17.3%22%
Dunelm GroupDNLM16.6%6.4%-16%
Yellow CakeYCA15.4%3586.6%4749%
TymanTYMN15.1%-14.9%-31%
PlaytechPTEC14.5%-21.3%-63%
Just GrpJUST14.2%11.1%19%
IMIIMI13.0%11.2%-9%
Connect GroupCNCT12.4%12.4%-4%
ErgomedERGO12.3%14.6%102%
JD Sports FashionJD12.2%-61.4%-59%
B&M European Value RetailBME12.1%52.2%47%
GCP Student LivingDIGS11.9%-15.8%-21%
SDLSDL11.5%11.5%-18%
RenishawRSW10.6%15.7%-61%
AAAA9.8%4.7%-14%
Codemasters Group HoldingsCDM9.8%47.2%34%
KAZ MineralsKAZ9.8%26.8%-14%
Impact HealthcareIHR9.2%7.2%-
TalkTalk Telecom GroupTALK9.1%11.7%-3%
M&GMNG9.0%7.6%-
Nucleus Financial GroupNUC8.7%14.5%-30%
Standard CharteredSTAN8.4%-24.0%-59%
Curtis Banks GroupCBP8.1%1.7%-11%
Draper EspritGROW8.1%85.1%-16%
ComputacenterCCC7.9%12.3%15%
Vectura GroupVEC7.3%1.3%24%
CapitalCAPD7.2%-5.3%-
CMC MarketsCMCX7.1%14.7%350%
MondiMNDI6.9%0.0%-35%
Morses ClubMCL6.6%-24.0%-19%
Shield TherapeuticsSTX6.6%--
Virgin Money UKVMUK6.6%-29.5%-81%
Gamesys GroupGYS6.5%6.7%32%
SercoSRP6.2%16.6%28%
Weir GroupWEIR6.1%4.6%-31%
IofinaIOF6.0%-52%
SchrodersSDR5.9%12.0%-11%
Mortgage Advice BureauMAB15.6%5.6%-32%
GlencoreGLEN5.6%-18.3%-78%
Begbies Traynor GroupBEG5.6%5.7%9%
CLS HoldingsCLI5.5%5.6%-23%
Rathbone BrothersRAT5.3%12.5%-21%
XP PowerXPP5.3%10.0%-1%
Impax Asset Management GpIPX5.2%13.1%29%
discoverIE GroupDSCV5.2%-15.2%-22%
Pets At HomePETS5.1%-27.9%-20%
RotorkROR5.0%3.2%-15%
Liontrust Asset MgmtLIO5.0%15.4%16%
Rentokil InitialRTO5.0%5.0%-12%
Polymetal InternationalPOLY4.9%9.4%58%
CRHCRH4.8%4.8%-26%
Grafton GroupGFTU4.6%-39.6%-61%
Gateley HoldingsGTLY4.6%0.1%-2%
ApplegreenAPGN4.5%4.5%20%
Sage GroupSGE4.3%-0.2%-10%
Euromoney Instl InvestorERM4.2%3.8%-51%
DiageoDGE4.1%1.1%-20%
Tate & LyleTATE4.0%-9.8%-6%
Brewin DolphinBRW4.0%9.7%-6%
IdoxIDOX3.9%-3.2%36%
Gamma CommunicationsGAMA3.9%5.0%33%
Admiral GroupADM3.8%3.0%9%
RHI MagnesitaRHIM3.6%3.2%-48%
EVRAZEVR3.6%3.2%-58%
Ultra Electronics HldgsULE3.5%1.8%8%
Volution GroupFAN3.5%-3.8%-27%
McBrideMCB3.5%20.0%-11%
Ninety One PlcN913.4%-8.7%-
Flutter EntertainmentFLTR3.4%21.9%24%
Jupiter Fund ManagementJUP3.3%10.7%-27%
ChesnaraCSN3.3%6.7%-15%
FocusriteTUNE3.2%24.2%49%
FutureFUTR3.2%3.6%54%

Source: FactSet (12 August 2020)

 

Downgrades
Wednesday, 12 August 2020FWD EPS CHG
NameTIDM1mth3mth1yr
SynconaSYNC-99.8%--100%
HuntingHTG-95.4%-99.7%-100%
Melrose IndustriesMRO-87.7%-92.4%-97%
Gem DiamondsGEMD-87.0%-89.0%-97%
Stagecoach GroupSGC-77.3%-77.7%-82%
ScS GroupSCS-72.0%-20.2%-86%
VictoriaVCP-65.7%-68.2%-74%
Appreciate GroupAPP-58.0%-58.0%-59%
Mears GroupMER-57.7%-66.0%-70%
Bigblu BroadbandBBB-52.3%-52.3%2%
IG Design GroupIGR-50.4%-50.4%-53%
AscentialASCL-48.9%-67.7%-88%
Jadestone EnergyJSE-48.8%--99%
Kenmare ResourcesKMR-46.5%-66.2%-81%
Shearwater GroupSWG-45.1%-34.8%-33%
Keystone Law GroupKEYS-42.4%-49.5%-62%
Vitec GroupVTC-41.1%-78.7%-91%
PageGroupPAGE-39.4%-77.5%-94%
U & I GroupUAI-38.0%--81%
Countryside PropertiesCSP-37.5%-52.1%-61%
Frenkel Topping GroupFEN-35.7%-35.7%-31%
Franchise BrandsFRAN-34.3%-34.3%-
MITIE GroupMTO-33.9%-59.9%-66%
TrifastTRI-32.0%-31.6%-51%
H&T GroupHAT-31.1%-31.4%13%
St Modwen PropertiesSMP-30.5%-47.2%-44%
Flowtech FluidpowerFLO-30.3%-30.3%-62%
Picton Property IncomePCTN-27.7%-19.0%-21%
Advanced Medical Sol GrpAMS-26.8%-46.5%-55%
Intu PropertiesINTU-26.1%-47.0%-81%
Alfa Financial SoftwareALFA-25.7%-53.7%-90%
InchcapeINCH-25.3%-63.3%-69%
InterContinental Hotels GroupIHG-24.3%-56.9%-81%
Signature AviationSIG-23.5%-47.7%-73%
Frasers GroupFRAS-23.2%-27.4%-32%
RicardoRCDO-22.6%-35.5%-52%
IbstockIBST-22.5%-59.4%-75%
Taylor WimpeyTW-22.5%-51.0%-64%
DialightDIA-22.3%-22.3%-79%
Serabi GoldSRB-22.1%-21.7%126%
Smart Metering SystemsSMS-21.9%-24.3%-49%
Robert WaltersRWA-21.9%-21.6%-88%
Biffa PlcBIFF-20.2%-85.0%-86%
Wentworth ResourcesWEN-19.6%-23.4%-59%
MarshallsMSLH-19.6%-37.6%-48%
Crest NicholsonCRST-19.5%-43.5%-75%
IG Group HoldingsIGG-18.8%-16.0%28%
SimplyBiz GroupSBIZ-18.6%-18.6%-13%
Midwich GroupMIDW-18.1%-14.4%-19%
Serica EnergySQZ-17.3%-8.9%-77%
LancashireLRE-17.1%-28.2%-42%
Polypipe GroupPLP-17.0%-54.7%-62%
InstemINS-16.3%3.0%-2%
Lloyds Banking GroupLLOY-16.3%-45.2%-84%
Vivo EnergyVVO-16.2%-50.4%-58%
Renewi PlcRWI-15.8%-73.8%-80%
Babcock International GroupBAB-15.7%-34.0%-37%
ElementisELM-15.5%-16.5%-56%
Bank of Georgia GroupBGEO-15.5%-29.4%-51%
Beeks Financial Cloud GrpBKS-15.4%-15.4%-33%
Tekmar Group PlcTGP-15.0%-14.8%-52%
Scapa GroupSCPA-14.9%-72.6%-77%
RPS GroupRPS-14.8%-28.4%-57%
AggrekoAGK-14.5%-26.5%-54%
Warehouse REITWHR-14.1%-11.2%14%
Travis PerkinsTPK-14.1%-29.5%-51%
PetropavlovskPOG-13.6%197.0%-
Hargreaves LansdownHL-13.5%-8.4%-16%
Burberry GroupBRBY-12.6%-25.8%-45%
Greencore GroupGNC-12.3%-56.6%-59%
Pan African ResourcesPAF-12.1%-3.9%72%
De La RueDLAR-11.8%38.5%-60%
Balfour BeattyBBY-11.8%-40.5%-47%
ZotefoamsZTF-11.5%-11.0%-41%
HammersonHMSO-11.2%-18.4%-59%
James HalsteadJHD-11.2%-11.2%-15%
K3 Capital GroupK3C-10.9%-10.9%30%
Redde NorthgateREDD-10.5%-12.8%-24%
InformaINF-10.5%-38.1%-64%
SThreeSTEM-9.7%-17.5%-60%
BellwayBWY-9.3%-15.8%-41%
Close Brothers GroupCBG-9.3%-32.2%-48%
HSBC HoldingsHSBA-9.2%-26.8%-66%
Network International HoldingsNETW-8.9%-27.8%-54%
Vistry GroupVTY-8.9%-27.3%-38%
Urban&CivicUANC-8.4%67.3%-56%
Equiniti GroupEQN-8.2%-13.3%-35%
Howden Joinery GroupHWDN-8.1%-44.4%-48%
PelatroPTRO-7.9%--87%
Watches of Switzerland GroupWOSG-7.8%5.3%-29%
Moneysupermarket com GrpMONY-7.8%-23.1%-24%
SSESSE-7.8%-12.3%-19%
Clinigen GroupCLIN-7.4%-8.3%19%
RedrowRDW-7.0%-30.7%-49%
TBC Bank GroupTBCG-6.9%-32.9%-54%
AbcamABC-6.5%-16.5%-44%
Pearson PlcPSON-6.4%-12.9%-50%
Capital & RegionalCAL-6.3%-22.2%-67%
Legal & General GroupLGEN-6.2%-8.7%-16%
NWF GroupNWF-6.2%-6.2%13%
Go-Ahead GroupGOG-6.0%-43.0%-63%
GlobalDataDATA-5.9%0.6%21%
Central Asia MetalsCAML-5.8%-16.8%-42%
BT GroupBT.A-5.5%-13.2%-25%
BHP GroupBHP-5.3%-2.5%-10%
Pennon GroupPNN-5.1%-35.1%-38%
United Oil & GasUOG-5.0%--
Craneware PlcCRW-5.0%-8.7%-14%
Hummingbird ResourcesHUM-5.0%--14%
MeggittMGGT-4.9%-19.9%-48%
DS SmithSMDS-4.9%-27.3%-34%
HalmaHLMA-4.9%-4.9%-8%
National GridNG-4.9%-8.7%-8%
Hastings Group HoldingsHSTG-4.8%-6.3%-3%
Workspace GroupWKP-4.8%-30.2%-32%
RestoreRST-4.8%-17.7%-45%
MJ Hudson GroupMJH-4.8%25.0%-
RSA Insurance GroupRSA-4.6%-7.0%-5%
CalisenCLSN-4.5%-1.6%-
Drax GroupDRX-4.5%-1.6%9%
GoCo GroupGOCO-4.4%-8.8%-1%
PayPointPAY-4.4%-19.9%-21%
UDG HealthcareUDG-4.3%-13.7%-17%
ClarksonCKN-4.3%-5.7%-14%
Strix GroupKETL-4.3%-3.1%-4%
DevroDVO-4.2%-3.7%-8%
CentralNic GroupCNIC-4.1%3.1%3%
Micro Focus InternationalMCRO-3.9%-7.9%-36%
AvastAVST-3.9%-5.8%1%
Airtel AfricaAAF-3.9%-7.1%-17%
Vodafone GroupVOD-3.9%-3.0%-20%
Amino TechnologiesAMO-3.8%-5.3%-2%
Smith & NephewSN-3.7%-20.9%-39%
NewRiver REITNRR-3.7%-51.0%-53%
BATM Advanced CommBVC-3.6%63.0%49%
Just Eat Takeaway.comJET-3.5%14.3%-
BOKUBOKU-3.2%15.2%33%
Inspecs GroupSPEC-3.2%-74.0%-
Steppe CementSTCM-3.2%-60.0%-62%
600 GroupSIXH-3.2%-10.5%-78%
Amiad Water SystemsAFS-3.2%-5.6%-
4Imprint GroupFOUR-3.2%-73.6%-88%
Telit CommunicationsTCM-3.2%-5.6%158%
Empyrean EnergyEME-3.2%-5.6%-
Caledonia MiningCMCL-3.2%42.0%178%
Griffin MiningGFM-3.2%-51.2%-58%
VolexVLX-3.2%-17.1%-14%
Kape TechnologiesKAPE-3.2%-6.3%89%
Water IntelligenceWATR-3.2%-0.4%4%
MP Evans GroupMPE-3.2%-27.0%9%
YouGovYOU-3.1%-1.9%19%

Source: FactSet (12 August 2020)

 

Click here to view the tables in PDF form.