Where Cannon Street meets Queen Street, just across the Thames from FT Towers, there is a branch of Pret a Manger on the corner. Two doors down, there's another Pret. Head fifty metres towards Bank and there's another. And another.
Much of the talk surrounding the retail industry's problems has centred on a likely collapse in demand. But the proliferation of pricey sandwich shops shows another side to the issue: oversupply.
It's the same with Woolworths, the first really high-profile casualty of the retail downturn. There are some 800 Woolworths stores - including four within a five-mile radius of my house, three of which are too small to stock anything like a sensible range of goods.
In an era when banks were prepared to finance ambitious expansion plans, and extend endless cheap credit to consumers, this was sustainable. Now, it isn't. And the same thing that happened to the pub industry is likely to happen to the retailers. Thousands of pubs have closed in the last few years, and thousands of shops will do so in the next few.
Which ones? Companies trading predominantly from big trading estates - the B&Qs and Comets, will come under pressure, but are likely to survive if they close down smaller, less profitable outlets. and use their buying power to maximum effect. It's the High Street that's going to get clobbered, with smaller independent stores likely to bear the brunt.
Aside from excessive debt, a good way to spot a retailer heading for trouble is the withdrawal of credit insurance - that is, suppliers can no longer insure themselves against the retailer going under. Once that happens, suppliers start to demand immediate payment for goods and the retailer is rapidly caught in a cash flow crisis.
With shares prices in the sector down more than 60 per cent overall, and by a lot more in some individual cases, watch out for a round of privatisations in 2009. Many retailers have significant shareholders who might decide to bag a bargain of their own - if they can persuade banks to lend to them. For instance, Lord Harris tried to take Carpetright private in late 2007 at 1250p a share, but was thwarted by the cost of credit. Carpetright shares are now less than 400p.
