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The five-year plan: make a Fortune

Fortune Oil boosted full-year earnings and dividends on the back of strong gains from its stake in Bluesky Aviation, together with a £7.3m one-off gains on disposals. But it's the strategic investments that have positioned the company to exploit changes now underway within China’s energy markets.

The headline fall in revenues - excluding Fortune's share of joint ventures - reflected lower natural gas sales as the group undertook a rationalisation of its gas interests, including the sale of its stake in Beijing Fu Hua Dadi Gas. However, a 14 per cent rise in Bluesky's fuel sales helped to boost the unit's net profits by a third and lift Fortune Oil's operating profits by 11 per cent to £27.4m. During the year, Bluesky, in partnership with China National Aviation Fuels, secured a deal to the supply fuel needs of 15 new airports in China.

Despite the non-core gas sales, Fortune launched four new city gas projects, whilst reporting a 16 per cent rise in the number of its domestic gas customers in 2011. And since the year-end it has built a strategic 11 per cent stake in Hong Kong-listed China Gas Holdings - the largest national supplier.

Oriel Securities forecasts 2012 EPS of 1p (2011: 0.96p) although it's worth noting that 2011 EPS earnings were signifcantly ahead of the beroker's estimates.

FORTUNE OIL (FTO)
ORD PRICE:12.25pMARKET VALUE:£243m
TOUCH:12-12.25p12-MONTH HIGH:14.75pLOW: 9p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.5%PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:7p*NET DEBT:3%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200773.08.80.25nil
200813215.70.49nil
200919218.10.47nil
201027626.10.690.13
201120031.70.960.18
% change-28+21+39+38

Ex-div:23 May

Payment:27 Jun

*Includes intangible assets of £49.7m, or 2.5p a share

IC VIEW:

Fortune's operational strategy has been framed by China's 12th five-year plan, which commits the country to massive civil aviation expansion, in addition to doubling the use of natural gas as a proportion of China's energy mix. Beijing is also considering raising domestic gas prices by artificially linking them to crude oil. Priced on a modest 12 times forecast earnings, the shares are worth buying.

Last IC view: Fairly priced, 13.25p, 28 April 2011

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By Mark Robinson,
27 April 2012

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