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Bet on a bounce at International Personal Finance

Shares in overseas-focused doorstep lender, International Personal Finance, slumped after being hit with a fine in Poland, but that has been a buying opportunity for chief executive Gerard Ryan
January 9, 2014 and Lee Wild

The festive spirit at International Personal Finance (IPF) may have been a tad subdued this Christmas. That's because the overseas-focused doorstep lender was hit with a £2.4m fine on the day before Christmas Eve after Polish regulators served a notice stating that the way the group calculates APR "amounts to a collective infringement of consumer interests". Even though management intends to appeal the decision, the lender does generate around half of its profits in Poland. Accordingly, the shares tumbled a quarter on the news.

Another bigger worry, as broker Numis Securities points out, is a discussion paper that's looking at changing the interest rate cap to a cost of credit or APR cap. Taken together, believes Numis, these two issues could "fundamentally impact the Polish business". That backdrop leaves chief executive Gerard Ryan's decision to buy 100,000 shares on 27 December at 451.5p, worth £451,500, looking brave.

It's a move, however, that has already left Mr Ryan in the money given that the shares have since recovered to 524.5p. But they're still trading 15 per cent lower than prior to news of the fine and are rated on 13 times Numis' end-2013 earnings estimate. That's inexpensive compared to the historic rating. Yet it's entirely possible that the group could win its appeal. While, longer term, the Polish authorities may yet conclude that regulating away the legitimate provision of sub-prime credit isn't necessarily so wise when demand remains robust. Sure, there are risks. But, with a little luck, there could be quite a share price bounce coming. Buy.

Mondi's boss bags half a million

David Hathorn, chief executive at paper and packaging giant Mondi (MNDI), had every reason to toast the new year with a satisfied grin. Just hours earlier, he had sold 50,000 shares in the dual-listed blue chip at 1,045p, bagging over half a million pounds in the process.

Of course, the temptation to book profits would have been great. Despite the recession, a sector-leading return on capital has driven compound annual earnings growth of 20 per cent since its demerger from Anglo American in 2007, and a €1.6bn (£1.3bn) spending spree has increased exposure to more lucrative consumer packaging and emerging markets. Mondi's share price has risen sharply, too - up 38 per cent since June - and this was the last chance for management to trade before the close period ahead of full-year results, currently slated for 28 February and hotly tipped to meet expectations.

"All good," Mr Hathorn told Investors Chronicle following November's third-quarter update. Further acquisition benefits and cost-cutting are on the cards and the global economic recovery should drive further earnings growth in 2014. Already up 57 per cent since our buy tip (651p, 11 October 2012) to 1,021p, we think the share price has further to run. Buy.

Buys
CompanyDirectorDateNo of sharesPrice (p)Value (£)Holding (shares)Holding (%)
Amara Mining The Right Honourable Peter Hain 30 Dec 1330,708123,685113,0800.05
Amara Mining Hendrik Faul30 Dec 1341,666125,00049,5090.02
Amara Mining Peter Cowley30 Dec 1341,666125,00083,2840.04
Amara Mining Geoff Stanley30 Dec 13141,6661217,000171,5650.08
APC Technology  Leonard Seelig (ch)27 Dec 139,00758.455,2659,0070.02
APC Technology † Leonard Seelig (ch)27 Dec 1316,18957.629,32825,1960.04
AssuraJonathan Murphy02 Jan 14100,0003838,000200,0000.04
Brown (N)  Andrew Higginson (ch)30 Dec 134115152,11784,9680.03
Cable & Wireless CommunicationsPhil Bentley02 Jan 144,300,00056.912,447,216nana
Castleton Technology †Tony Weaver31 Dec 1364,000,0000.504322,560149,616,08423.99
Castleton Technology †Ian Smith (ce)31 Dec 1364,000,0000.504322,560149,616,08423.99
Centrica Ian Meakins30 Dec 13406347.91,4126,2760.00
Centrica Lesley Knox30 Dec 13534347.91,8585,1920.00
Centrica Margherita Della Valle30 Dec 13727347.92,5297,2320.00
Croma Security Solutions  Roberto Fiorentino (ce)30 Dec 1338,9472610,1263,750,00025.23
Devro G Hoetmer30 Dec 13903285.62,57910,0000.01
Devro G Hoetmer27 Dec 139,097283.525,7909,0970.01
Hiscox Ernst Jansen30 Dec 132,511691.891517,37377,3990.02
Hiscox Andrea Rosen30 Dec 132,719691.891518,81368,1100.02
Inmarsat Simon Bax27 Dec 131,500752.511,2881,5000.00
Inmarsat †Simon Bax27 Dec 131,500752.511,2883,0000.00
International Personal Finance Gerard Ryan (ce)27 Dec 13100,000451.5451,500300,0000.13
Octopus Titan VCT 5 J Oliver31 Dec 132,47393.72,3174,6890.02
PZ Cussons Richard Harvey (ch)31 Dec 133,289376.212,37357,3260.01
Sovereign Mines of Africa JP Barry31 Dec 134,000,0002.9116,0008,000,0003.22
Thorpe, FW †David Taylor02 Jan 145,000129.456,47355,9130.05
Vertu MotorsRobert Forrester03 Jan 1419,78457.911,4556,545,2041.94
Vertu MotorsMchael Sherwin03 Jan 1417,95857.910,398327,9880.10
Vedanta ResourcesA Agarwal27 Dec 13201,8238891,794,206178,487,25866.93
Symphony International Holdings G Gagnebin27 Dec 13130,00074.772297,204740,1580.14
W Resources *Dr Byron Pirola31 Dec 136,250,0000.850,000139,959,7496.70

Sells
CompanyDirectorDateNo of sharesPrice (p)Value (£)Holding (shares)Holding (%)
Baronsmead VCT 3 Gill Nott 27 Dec 1325,461106.12527,02057,2780.09
CatlinRichard Banas30 Dec 1329,160586170,878340,2620.09
CatlinRichard Banas31 Dec 1314,05658181,665340,2620.09
Dillistone  Alex James31 Dec 1320,00010220,400101,4940.56
IBEX Global Solutions †Mohammed Khaishgi30 Dec 131,0002102,10029,652,93274.97
IBEX Global Solutions †Zia Chishti (ch)30 Dec 131,0002102,10029,652,93274.97
Mondi David Hathorn (ce)31 Dec 1350,0001,045.16522,57920,6640.01

*Placing **Buyback/tender offer †Spouse/connected party

Key to abbreviations: ch = chairman; ce = chief executive; cfo = chief financial officer; fd = finance director; coo = chief operating officer; cs =company secretary; md = managing director