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Opinion

Can Optibiotix keep its momentum?

Can Optibiotix keep its momentum?
February 1, 2016
Can Optibiotix keep its momentum?
IC TIP: Hold at 82p

Not long ago, Mr O'Hara sometimes struggled to get people to listen. Now, it would appear, he is routinely approached on bended knee. From the market's point of view, that may have something to do with last year's four-fold share price increase, making it one of the biggest risers in London and earning it a strong retail investor following.

From a commercial perspective, Mr O'Hara says enquiries like the agrichemicals call reflect a dawning awareness of the science Optibiotix is involved in. The fact fewer peers appreciated the science in the past may not be that surprising - for the uninitiated, it sounds somewhat baffling.

 

Under the skin

In recent years, microbiology has sharply increased its understanding of bacteria in the gastrointestinal tract, both in the way microbes break down food and affect our health and affect our susceptibility to disease. Based on this, Optibiotix has developed patented technologies which work with or modulate what's termed the 'human microbiome' to bring about health benefits. Examples of products include bacteria which are proven to reduce cholesterol levels or suppress appetite, though Optibiotix says it can produce formulations capable of preventing or managing a wide range of diseases. To the doubters, the company can point to pre-clinical studies which show the products' efficacy.

There is quite obviously an enormous market for any consumable which claims to tackle weight loss or ill-health, and explains why the highly-competitive consumer goods industry is increasingly interested in Optibiotix's technology. That interest is underlined by a number of commercial deals signed since it listed in August 2014, including an unnamed multinational consumer goods company and - perhaps most significantly - KSF Acquisition, the group behind this product line:

 

 

As part of the agreement, Optibiotix' SlimBiome weight management technology will be tested in Slim Fast products. If successful, KSF has the option to commercialise SlimBiome, which could represent a significant royalty stream for the Aim group.

What's more, Mr O'Hara says the nature of the Optibiotix 'platform' means it can be applied to unlimited products and health requirements. It's a little like owning both the operating system and the rights to develop every app on it. Mr O'Hara believes the operating system could be adopted for the skincare, healthcare acquired infections and wound care markets, worth a combined $221bn (£154bn) globally.

 

Easy digestion?

But Optibiotix and its partners are beholden to the public's understanding and belief in the products' claims. Shares in Weight Watchers (US:WTW) may climb whenever media titan (and, er, 15 per cent shareholder) Oprah Winfrey says she has shed some pounds through the dieting programme, but the loyal following she commands takes a long time to cultivate. Optibiotix knows that trust is a fragile commodity when it comes to health foods, and any doubt over the legitimacy of a new science erodes the marketplace for the company's products.

To help with that effort- or at least connect the dots between diet, the microbiome and health - Optibiotix recently recruited to its scientific advisory board Tim Spector, a professor at King's College London and a leading authority on microbiology. Though Mr Spector is not being employed as a salesman, it is hoped he will effectively communicate the science to the world. Once Optibiotix-backed products are widely available, it won't be hard for people to make the link.

Alongside the science, there is something unique about Optibiotix as an Aim company. In December, it raised £1.5m to quicken its existing products' route to market and add new products, giving it a total cash pile of £3.7m. With a very well-managed cost base of less than £100,000 a month, the company is unlikely to need funding from the market again in the next three years. Despite this, early-stage payments from commercial deals mean income for 2016 should be around £750,000, indicating a break even point is attainable in the not too distant future.

And despite the limited free cash flows, Mr O'Hara thinks Optibiotix shares should be valued nearer the £2 mark, which is a 141 per cent premium to the current price. This time last year, he predicted the shares would more than double. That proved to be prescient, though the chief executive's desire to see smaller shareholders benefit from the growth in the stock's strong momentum will have helped no end.