Equities and sterling appeared to be breathing a sigh of relief in the final hours before voting in the EU referendum began, even though some polls put the Leave camp marginally ahead.
At the time of going to press, the FTSE 100 stood at 6274, an impressive recovery from the sub-6000 level it hit on 13 June, and the pound had risen against the US dollar to $1.47 from a low of $1.41 on 14 June.
This seemed at odds with some data, though, including results from the Financial Times' poll of polls, which gave Leave a 45/44 point lead, and some figures from the bookies. Data supplied to Investors Chronicle by Oddschecker, which aggregates 26 major bookmakers, showed the percentage of individual bets placed on leave had hit 66.4 per cent in the 24-hour period from 11.40am on 21 June against 33.6 per cent for Remain.
But the total amount of money backing the UK staying in the EU represented 81.2 per cent of all bets, meaning punters believing in the status quo are more confident or have greater amounts of disposable income. The largest single bet in the past week for Remain was £10,000 compared with Leave's £1,000. The bookmakers themselves are also more confident that Remain will win given the odds on a vote in favour of staying in the EU are shorter than those to leave, according to Oddschecker.
Elsewhere, some 80 per cent of the £1m-worth of bets placed through Betfair's gambling exchange immediately after the Wembley Arena debate on 21 June backed Remain. The odds of a Brexit shortened last week, but there is now only an implied 24 per cent chance of the Leave camp prevailing, Betfair said.
A major PR assault by the Remain camp, including Ryanair (RYA) chief executive Michael O'Leary offering £19.99 fares to Europe ahead of voting and citing membership as a reason air fares had fallen in recent years, may well have swung it.
Equity futures appeared to have spiked in recent days too, suggesting investors are predicting a relief rally. Such a move may well be replicated elsewhere, especially given Danske Bank this week predicted a vote to leave the EU would potentially tip countries such as Finland and Denmark back into recession.
UBS also said the FTSE 100 index could fall to its lowest point since 2011 - below 5000 - if the country voted to leave.
A host of financial advisers told Investors Chronicle sister title FTAdviser.com that they had refrained from trying to position portfolios in a way that predicted the outcome, suggesting it was better to remain invested than try to guess the result.
