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Go-Ahead ready for Thameslink

Go-Ahead is gearing up to start operating the high-profile Thameslink contract on 14 September.
September 5, 2014

“It’s just been a really good year," enthuses Keith Down, finance director of Go-Ahead (GOG). The transport operator walked away with one of the biggest franchise wins of the year – the hotly-contested Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern contract – in May, while the bus division looks well on route to meeting the £100m operating profit target by 2016.

IC TIP: Hold at 2,346p

There were a couple of lost opportunities: the headline-grabbing Crossrail contract and the Docklands Light Railway franchise went to other bidders. But Mr Down said the company learnt “important lessons” that should help it secure the Northern and TransPenine Express franchises, for which Go-Ahead was shortlisted after the period-end.

For now, Go-Ahead is focused on getting the Thameslink and Great Northern franchises up and running by 14 September under the new brand name “Govia Thameslink Railway”. The existing Southern franchise will then join the brand from July 2015. Mr Down told us he’d pencilled in £3m of related start-up costs, £1.5m of which were booked last year.

Headlines aside, the existing rail division performed well last year. Revenues rose 5 per cent to £1.9bn, delivering a stonking £8.2m improvement in operating profit to £19.7m, thanks to record passenger numbers. The bus division saw similar trends, reporting 11 per cent growth in operating profit to a record £83.5m, roughly equally split between London and the provinces. The bus division's 'Target 100' project - aiming for £100m in bus operating profit by 2016 - has now reached the halfway point. At the group level, operating profit grew 19 per cent to £103m.

Go-Ahead’s North American ventures came to a close following the year-end, when its joint venture with Cook-Illinois completed work on two contracts in St Louis, Missouri. Mr Down said Go-Ahead enjoyed “dipping its toe” in the North American market, but “aggressive” contract terms have ruled out returning to the US for now.

Analysts at Investec expect pre-tax profits of £94m for the current financial year, giving EPS of 152p, up from £85m and 147p respectively.

GO-AHEAD (GOG)
ORD PRICE:2,346pMARKET VALUE:£ 1.01bn
TOUCH:2,347-2,359p12-MONTH HIGH:2,442pLOW: 1,475p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.6%PE RATIO:14
NET ASSET VALUE:118p*NET DEBT:64%

Year to 28 JuneTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20102.1765.840.181
20112.3084.814781
20122.4284.513081
20132.5763.110881
20142.7091.216484.5
% change+5+45+52+4

Ex-div:30 Oct

Payment:14 Nov

*Includes £88m of intangible assets or 204p per share