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Supermarkets scupper Wetherspoon

Wetherspoon feels the effects of low supermarket beer prices and rising inflation
September 12, 2011

Cheap supermarket booze put a dent in underlying growth at pub chain JD Wetherspoon with chairman Tim Martin warning that "the biggest danger to the pub industry is the tax disparity between supermarkets and pubs".

IC TIP: Hold at 394p

According to the latest figures from the British Beer and Pub Association, sales of beer through supermarkets outstripped sales via pubs for the first time in history last year. With its price-sensitive customer base, that shift is starting to show up clearly in Wetherspoon's figures. Although its like-for-like sales growth was 2.1 per cent over the year, the rate of growth has slowed sharply since the year-end to just 0.4 per cent in the past six weeks and unlike rivals it has failed to increase underlying food sales since 2008.

Inflation also meant that profitability came under pressure. While underlying operating profits climbed by 2.3 per cent to £102.3m, the operating margin fell by 50 basis points to 9.5 per cent as a result of higher bar, food, labour and utilities costs.

Broker Altium expects underlying full-year pre-tax profits of £66.7m and EPS of 33.4p (from £71m and 36.9p in 2011).

JD WETHERSPOON (JDW)

ORD PRICE:396pMARKET VALUE:£521m
TOUCH:395-396p12-MONTH HIGH:473pLOW: 384p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.0%PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:130pNET DEBT:256%

Year to 24 JulTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20070.8962.031.812.0
20080.9154.225.212.0
20090.9645.018.2nil
20101.0060.530.212.0
20111.0761.435.412.0
% change+8+2+17 

Ex-div:19 Oct

Payment:23 Nov