An annual feature in the IC over the past decade has seen us explore global markets through the prism of investment trusts ('Around the world in eight investment trusts' ).
It’s a useful exercise, not only because it allows for a top-down assessment of why one country or region might outperform another, but also because it shows why vehicles operating in the same market offer such differing returns.
But what if we were to look at countries in terms of a single share? The simplest way to do so is to choose the biggest – the “national champions”, if you like – of each exchange. These provide a useful insight into their home nation, its economy and its market, and they usually have the advantage of being very liquid.
Their size means they are not hidden gems, but the fact that many have emerged from domestic markets to become major industry players mean they’re useful ideas for investors wanting to look beyond the UK market.
Of course, there are a bunch of different practical and risk factors that anyone thinking of directly buying shares in an overseas exchange needs to consider. In some markets, such as India, direct equity investment is not possible for anyone other than non-resident Indians. Even in countries where foreign investment is allowed, formal or informal capital controls can mean there’s no way of being able to repatriate profits, or currencies may be so unstable as to wipe out any gains made.
Then there are issues such as the rule of law, and how well minority shareholders’ rights are upheld. We have included rankings on minority shareholder rights from the World Bank's latest Doing Business index – albeit this index was halted in 2021 after “data irregularities” were reported. The organisation is launching a new competitiveness index, Business Ready, in September. We’ve also included the latest country scores from Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. In both cases, the lower the score, the cleaner the market.
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In general, emerging markets “have weaker corporate governance, including weaker minority shareholders rights” than developed markets, and even where laws are properly enforced, cases could take decades to clear, warns Ashok Parameswaran, president of the Emerging Markets Investors Alliance – a non-profit body set up by institutional investors to promote good governance.
He also points out that “the problem of asymmetric information between institutional and retail investors is even bigger in emerging markets than in advanced economies”.
Yet corporate governance is as much an issue for developed markets, particularly when it comes to issues such as differing share classes with preferential voting rights.
“That’s something that these days, I think you’ll find it more often in the tech sector in the US,” notes Claus Born, an institutional portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton.
The US is, at least, a market through which investors can reasonably easily access local shares.
Some foreign shares can also be bought through single-stock exchange-traded funds, while funds and investment trusts focusing on single countries will often have hefty weightings to these national champions, too.
United States 2024 GDP growth forecast: 2.7%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 36
Corruption index rank: 24
National champion: Microsoft Market cap: $3.12tn
12-month share price change: 30%
Microsoft (US:MSFT) took Apple's (US:AAPL) spot as the world’s biggest listed company in January, when the company reported an 18 per cent year-on-year increase in revenue and a 33 per cent jump in operating profit on the back of strong demand in cloud revenue and productivity gains, both of which have been driven by a more widespread application of artificial intelligence (AI).
Lofty expectations around future earnings from AI have driven the share prices of most of the so-called Magnificent Seven significantly higher, but there are already signs of divergence among the group. Shares in chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) are up 80 per cent this year, while Tesla (TSLA) shares have fallen by 25 per cent.
Microsoft's shares are up around 30 per cent over the past year, but their continued momentum will depend on its ability to demonstrate that it can translate some of the lofty expectations around AI into solid returns. A $1.1bn (£880mn) deal signed with Coca-Cola (US:KO) to "accelerate cloud and generative AI initiatives" at the soft-drinks maker suggests that it can, and first-quarter results published last week were also reassuring. Its shares trade at 36 times investment bank William Blair’s forecast earnings for its 2025 financial year: William Blair analysts argue that Microsoft’s “ability to monetise the generative AI wave is second-to-none”.
Saudi Arabia 2024 GDP growth forecast: 2.7%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 3
Corruption index rank: 53
National champion: Saudi Aramco Market cap: $1.94tn
12-month share price change (US$): -7.9%
Saudi Arabian Oil Co (SA:2222), better known as Aramco, has a valuation that dipped below the $2tn high water mark within weeks of its 2019 flotation and the company recently lost its spot as the world’s third-biggest listed company to Nvidia.
But while the company’s share price has slipped to 30 riyals (£6.42), below its IPO price of 32 riyals, its total return to shareholders has been decent.
The company has distributed at least $75bn in ordinary dividends in each of the first three years since its float and last year pledged to return between 50 and 70 per cent of any additional free cash flow. For 2023, this brought total dividends to $97.8bn. HSBC analysts think payouts could top $124bn in 2024 as the Saudi government puts a brake on capacity expansion, which will keep capex in check.
“Since the IPO, the company has offered a total return to shareholders of about 40 per cent,” says Ahmed Hazem Maher, an analyst at investment bank EFG Hermes.
Even after recent interest rate hikes, this represents a decent premium over both local and global risk-free rates, he adds.
Such metrics would be irrelevant to an ESG-focused investor, though. Alongside the environmental problems of investing in the world’s biggest oil and gas company, there are social and governance issues to worry about given that you’d be investing alongside the Saudi Arabian state, which has a dismal human rights record. The Saudi government holds 82 per cent of Aramco’s shares directly, and controls a further 16 per cent through its sovereign wealth fund.
Taiwan 2024 GDP growth forecast: 3.1%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 21
Corruption index rank: 28
National champion: TSMC Market cap: $625bn
12-month share price change (US$): 45.2%
It’s difficult to understate the importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TW:2330) to the semiconductor industry – and to the billions of devices that depend on those semiconductors.
The company makes almost 12,000 different products that go into everything from the high-performance computers powering AI to fridges and washing machines. As at the fourth quarter of last year, TSMC had a 61 per cent share of the chip-making market, according to Counterpoint Research.
It also makes good money out of it – 10-year annual growth rates for revenue and operating profit stand at 14 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively, and its operating margin has averaged over 40 per cent, according to FactSet.
Analysts at Fubon Research recently lifted their target price on TSMC by more than a fifth, describing the company as “the most undervalued AI play”. Increased demand and plans by industry laggard Intel to outsource more work to the company will result in “additional market share gain”, they argued.
A price/earnings ratio of 19 is only slightly above its five-year average. Analysts say concerns around a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan are weighing on the shares.
But TSMC is taking advantage of incentives being offered in the US and EU to diversify production – a $6.6bn grant will help to fund two foundries in Arizona and it is set to start construction of a joint venture in Dresden. A plant in Japan is also set to begin production later this year.
Denmark 2024 GDP growth forecast: 2.1%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 28
Corruption index rank: 1
National champion: Novo Nordisk Market cap: $568bn
12-month share price change (US$): 44.3%
Novo Nordisk’s (DK:NOVO.B) ascent to the status of Europe’s biggest listed company last year was unsurprising, given the clamour for its diabetes and weight-loss drugs.
A rash of positive publicity surrounding its Ozempic and Wegovy brands, which are injectible semiglutide products that act as appetite suppressants, led to product shortages.
Novo Holdings, an investment and holding company for Novo Nordisk’s charitable foundation, has gone some way towards easing these by buying contract manufacturing company Catalent (US:CTLT) for $16.5bn (£13bn) in February. Novo Nordisk then agreed to pay $11bn for three of Catalent’s manufacturing sites – two of which are already used by the company to fill its injection pens.
This deal is a “game changer” for Novo, says Rajesh Kumar, a senior equity analyst at HSBC.
“The real bottleneck for growth has been supply, not demand. Demand is off the scale,” he notes. Novo Nordisk reported a 154 per cent increase in demand for its obesity care products in 2023, driven mainly by interest in the US.
Estimates vary, but the consensus view of the market size for the appetite suppressing drugs being developed by Novo and competitor Eli Lilly (US: LLY) is around $100bn, Kumar says, and adoption is growing rapidly as “reimbursement pathways are unlocking”, meaning employers are coming under more pressure to make sure the drug is covered under health insurance policies.
Read more: Weight-loss drugmakers race to prove health benefits
Novo Nordisk’s shares now trade at 35 times forecast earnings, a 32 per cent premium to their five-year average.
Kumar argues that this is because some buyside investors think that analysts’ estimates of eventual take-up rates are too cautious. They are modelling peak take-up in the US (the largest market with the highest price points) of around 10mn people, while the number of severely or morbidly obese people currently stands at 24mn – and there are millions more people classed as either obese or overweight who would also be interested in access to the drug, he adds.
France 2024 GDP growth forecast: 0.7%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 45
Corruption index rank: 20
National champion: LVMH Market cap: $427bn
12-month share price change (US$): -14.4%
France’s LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (FR:MC) may no longer be Europe's largest public company, but it has enjoyed spectacular growth in recent years, as consumers spent the excess savings built up during Covid lockdowns.
Since 2019, this owner of 75 different luxury goods brands, including Louis Vuitton and Dior, has grown sales by 60 per cent to €91bn (£78bn), while operating profit has doubled.
Things started to slow last year due to weaker sales in the US, and first-quarter results in 2024 showed this continued. A 3 per cent increase in organic revenue was slightly below consensus forecasts, but was deemed "robust" enough by Deutsche Bank analysts given the weak performance of peers such as Kering (FR:KER), which last month reported a double-digit decline in first-quarter sales due to the underperformance of its flagship Gucci brand.
HSBC analysts have warned that LVMH's strong performances in Asia (ex-Japan) and Europe last year could be difficult to replicate, though. They expect sales to slow this year, taking chief executive Bernard Arnault at his word when he recently told investors that maintaining product “desirability” was more important than growing its top line.
Hong Kong 2024 GDP growth forecast: 2.9%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 7
Corruption index rank: 14
National champion: Tencent Market cap: $418bn
12-month share price change (US$): 0.5%
There is an obvious debating point around whether Tencent (HK:700) should be included at all in this list, given that it is based in Shenzhen in mainland China, rather than Hong Kong.
Leaving aside the thorny issue as to whether Hong Kong still has enough sovereignty to be considered an independent entity, there are two good arguments for inclusion. One is the historic role Hong Kong’s stock market has played as a gateway to Chinese equities, and the other is that Tencent’s market cap of HK$3.3tn (£340bn) makes it bigger than the largest companies listed on China’s mainland exchanges.
The company is most famous for WeChat, an app that started as an internet messaging service but now underpins a swathe of online activities in China, from social media to shopping and gaming. It has more than 1.3bn active monthly users. Tencent also has stakes in some of the world's biggest gaming companies.
A 52 per cent share price decline since its February 2021 peak speaks of the risks that have been faced in recent years by investors in Chinese equities – particularly in tech stocks. Curbs on video games have acted as a brake on Tencent’s growth.
Yet the shares have rallied in recent weeks after the company posted a strong set of results for 2023, with revenue increasing by 10 per cent and operating profit rising by a third on the back of improving margins. A 42 per cent increase in its dividend, and a doubling of its buyback ambitions to HK$100bn for 2024 have clearly helped, too.
Netherlands 2024 GDP growth forecast: 0.6%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 79
Corruption index rank: 8
National champion: ASML Market cap: $352bn
12-month share price change (US$): 43.3%
First-quarter results for ASML (NL:ASML) proved to be a rare disappointment, with a 21 per cent slide in revenue below consensus forecasts. Yet the company, which makes the lithography machines needed to manufacture the most sophisticated chips, can suffer lumpy quarters and it remained confident enough in its ability to make up lost ground that it left its 2024 outlook unchanged.
The strength of its order book helps. ASML is part of a small group of companies providing the “picks and shovels” to the AI gold rush, notes Zehrid Osmani, manager of Martin Currie’s Global Long-Term Unconstrained fund.
Osmani expects ASML to achieve annualised sales of 15 per cent over the next five years, while earnings are forecast to grow by 21 per cent and free cash flow by 13 per cent.
As well as tapping into a “semiconductor supercycle”, ASML stands to benefit from the fact that governments around the world are subsidising new chip plants.
“In due course, once all these sites become operational, [ASML] will be shipping one tool to Taiwan, one to the US, one to Japan and one to Europe,” Osmani says.
South Korea 2024 GDP forecast: 2.3%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 25
Corruption index rank: 32
National champion: Samsung Electronics Market cap: $343bn
12-month share price change (US$): 16.7%
The past year has been rough for Samsung Electronics (KR:005930) , the world’s biggest manufacturer of smartphones, TVs and memory chips.
The boom in electronic device purchases during the initial wave of Covid lockdowns in 2020 proved to be a one-off, masking what has been a sluggish period of demand. Smartphone sales have fallen for six out of the past seven years in volume terms, while tablet sales last year fell to their lowest level since 2011, according to research firm IDC.
Samsung's operating profit slumped by 85 per cent to 6.57tn Korean won (£3.9bn) last year on a 14 per cent decline in sales.
Smartphone sales appear to have bottomed out, with IDC forecasting market growth of 3.8 per cent this year. Moreover, the company’s launch of the AI-enabled Galaxy S24 should help it to boost premium sales. HSBC analysts are forecasting an 8 per cent growth in mobile shipments this year at considerably higher prices.
Add in an anticipated recovery in the market for memory chips and it becomes clearer why the FactSet consensus forecast is for the company’s earnings per share to more than double this year. First quarter guidance indicated a tenfold increase in operating profit to 6.6tn won, triggering a share price rise and broker upgrades.
Japan 2024 GDP growth forecast: 0.9%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 57
Corruption index rank: 16
National champion: Toyota Motor Market cap: $316bn
12-month share price change (US$): 67.7%
Toyota Motor (JP:7203) has faced its fair share of criticism in recent years. Yet if the world’s biggest carmaker by volume continues to deliver the type of results it is currently achieving, much of this negativity will be ignored.
The company reported a 24 per cent increase in revenue for the nine months to December of ¥34tn (£177bn), and a doubling of its operating profit to ¥4.2tn. It attributed this to growth in its new car business, with vehicle sales increasing by 12 per cent to 7.3mn as a shortage in semiconductor availability eased.
Toyota’s share price has jumped by 96 per cent in local currency terms over the past year. The company had been criticised for not pursuing the transition to all-electric EVs using the prevailing lithium-ion technology quickly enough, but its bets on sticking with hybrids and on focusing on solid-state battery technology have recently found more sympathy among investors.
As the biggest share on Japan’s market-weighted Topix exchange, it has also benefited from the greater enthusiasm being shown by global investors for Japanese equities.
The Topix is up 37 per cent over the past 12 months amid reforms introduced by the Tokyo stock exchange seeking more transparency over cross-ownership structures and encouraging companies whose shares trade below their book value to come up with capital improvement plans.
Toyota has got on board, selling a stake in telecoms company KDDI in June last year for around $1.7bn and announcing a $2bn sale of shares in car parts maker Denso in November.
United Arab Emirates 2024 GDP growth forecast: 3.5%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 13
Corruption index rank: 26
National champion: International Holdings Market cap: $239bn
12-month share price change: 1.2%
Perhaps the most bizarre of our ‘national champions’, International Holdings Company (AE:IHC) has grown from a minnow on Abu Dhabi’s stock exchange just five years ago into one of the world’s biggest conglomerates by market cap.
In its 2018 financial year, it generated revenue of 570mn UAE dirhams (£123mn) – 60 per cent of which came from a fisheries arm – and a net profit of just Dh18mn.
Results for 2023 show revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 154 per cent and net profit at 331 per cent, to Dh60bn and Dh27.5bn, respectively. Much of this has come about through the transfer of assets by Royal Group - a privately owned vehicle controlled by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan, brother of the UAE’s president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. It owns a 61 per cent stake in IHC.
Yet despite IHC now having a market capitalisation larger than Shell (SHEL), McDonald’s (US:MCD) and Walt Disney (US:DIS) , there are concerns about transparency, with a Financial Times analysis of trades last year finding there were shares bought and sold in large blocks at similar times. The company said in response that the shares were “available to the market at a price for anyone”.
India 2024 GDP growth forecast: 6.8%
Protecting minority investors: 13
Corruption index rank: 93
National champion: Reliance Industries Market cap: $236bn
12-month share price change (US$): 32.5%
Reliance Industries (IN:50035) is a sprawling conglomerate invested in everything from oil refineries to telecoms, supermarkets and the Indian Premier League T20 cricket franchise team Mumbai Indians.
The company is owned by Asia’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani, who has significantly grown both its oil & gas and its telecoms arm over the past decade. The latter, through its Jio platform, has more than 470mn mobile and Wi-Fi subscribers and its rapid growth rate has attracted investments from the world’s biggest sovereign wealth and venture capital funds, as well as tech giants Meta and Google.
The group's impressive grown rate slowed last year, with its refining and chemicals arms facing "increasingly challenging market conditions".
Even after a 35 per cent local currency gain in its share price over the past 12 months, 80 per cent of the 30-something analysts who cover the company rate its shares as a buy.
Rohit Nagraj of Mumbai-based investment bank Centrum says that a heavy period of investment in a 5G rollout by its telecoms business is coming to an end, which should boost cash flows and allow for its interest burden to be reduced.
Belgium 2024 GDP growth forecast: 1.2%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 45
Corruption index rank: 16
National champion: AB InBev Market cap: $106bn
12-month share price change (US$): -9.2%
The nature of globalisation is perhaps most present in AB InBev’s (BE:ABI) results. The world’s largest brewer is headquartered in Leuven, where its famous Stella Artois brand first began brewing in the 14th century.
Yet its performance over the past year has been hampered by controversy in the US over a social media advertisement for its Bud Light brand featuring a transgender influencer, Dylan Mulvaney, that sparked a boycott among conservatives, which has been surprisingly enduring.
The ad first appeared in early April 2023. A year later, sales of Bud Light in the week to 31 March were down 26 per cent on the prior year, while competitor brands Coors Light and Miller Lite recorded growth of 19 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, Citi's analysis of Nielsen data showed. Although AB InBev reported a 7.8 per cent increase in revenue for 2023, this was entirely due to price increases. Volumes fell by 1.7 per cent worldwide and by 12.1 per cent in North America.
Weekly sales figures are beginning to recover as the company "laps through" last year's controversy, and with competitor brands still performing strongly "it is tough to see a catalyst for further share price underperformance", Citi's analysts argue. Brokers elsewhere are also carefully lifting earnings estimates.
South Africa 2024 GDP growth forecast: 0.9%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 13
Corruption index rank: 83
National champion: Naspers Market cap: $34.1bn
12-month share price change (US$): -9.1%
South Africa’s biggest company may have interests in some of the world’s most exciting technology ventures, but its own history is much more low-fi. Naspers (ZA:NPN) started out in 1915 publishing Afrikaans-language newspapers.
While technology has been the undoing of many old newspaper groups, Naspers’ success can be attributed to some astute investments made in other emerging market tech companies – most notably Tencent. It took a 46.5 per cent stake in Tencent back in 2001 and even after selling down chunks it has an indirect interest worth tens of billions.
An Amsterdam-listed vehicle, Prosus (NL:PRX), created four years ago to house Naspers’ international investments, still owns more than a quarter of Tencent – a stake currently valued at around $92bn.
And yet despite a string of other investments, Prosus shares trade at a discount to its Tencent stake, and Naspers shares at an even deeper one to its Prosus investment. Cross-investments in each others’ companies haven’t helped.
This is being addressed: Prosus is selling Tencent shares and buying back its own, while Naspers is simultaneously selling Prosus shares and buying its shares back.
Although Naspers still trades at a 43 per cent discount to its net asset value, HSBC analyst Madhvendra Singh says the “outlook remains promising given its focus on value crystallisation”.
Ireland 2024 GDP growth forecast: 1.5%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 13
Corruption index rank: 11
National champion: Ryanair Market cap: $25.1bn
12-month share price change (US$): 34.3%
It wouldn’t top many people’s list as their favourite airline – it ranks second-bottom of a list of Europe’s carriers by consumer magazine Which? – but there’s no doubting Ryanair’s (IE:RYA) runaway success. Modelled on the low-cost approach pioneered by Southwest Airlines (US:LUV) in the US, it is not only Ireland’s biggest listed company but also the world’s largest listed airline.
Founded by Irish businessman Tony Ryan 40 years ago, it has been spearheaded for the past 30 by his former tax adviser, Michael O’Leary, whose uncompromising approach has led to disputes with airports, suppliers, employees and customers alike.
Yet for all the gripes, people keep flocking back to Ryanair because an unrelenting focus on costs has allowed it to keep fares low. The airline carried 183.6mn passengers in the year to March – a 23 per cent increase on pre-pandemic numbers.
And a huge 300-plane order placed with Boeing (US:BA) last year, worth over $40bn at list prices, shows the scale of its intent. This will facilitate an 80 per cent increase in passenger numbers to 300mn by 2024.
Even after a 38 per cent local currency gain in its share price over the past 12 months, most analysts are upbeat about its prospects. BofA Securities analyst Muneeba Kayani ranks Ryanair as her top pick among the European airlines, due to its "best-in-class operational performance" and the fact that it is a cost leader, allowing it to drive profitable market share gains.
Nigeria 2024 GDP growth forecast: 3.3%
Minority shareholder rights rank: 28
Corruption index rank: 145
National champion: Dangote Cement Market cap: $8.2bn
12-month share price change (US$): -25.0%
Dangote Cement (NG:DANGCEM) is the biggest listed entity in Aliko Dangote’s empire.
Now Africa’s richest man, Dangote started the business by importing bagged cement. It is now sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest producer, operating plants in 10 countries. But its home market remains its biggest, generating 59 per cent of revenue and around three-quarters of cash profit last year.
This is despite the turmoil the domestic economy has endured following a double devaluation of the country’s currency, the naira, which has lost two-thirds of its value against the US dollar over the past 12 months.
Equally worrying is the January raid on Dangote Group’s headquarters by Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. It is investigating claims that former central bank chief Godwin Emefiele offered favourable foreign exchange rates to select companies and individuals.
Dangote Group owns 88 per cent of Dangote Cement’s shares, and so trading of the free floating portion has been volatile – their 12-month beta is double that of the wider market. The shares have also jumped by 85 per cent in naira terms since January, which analyst Isaac Osaro of Lagos-based brokerage WSTC attributes to the purchase of a large chunk of shares by local billionaire Femi Otedola.
Although Osaro remains optimistic on Dangote Cement’s long-term prospects, he says the current share price “is not backed by the fundamentals of the company”, and the shares trade at 17 times forecast earnings – above their five-year average of 12 times. The naira's instability also shows the havoc that currencies can wreak on investors' returns: a 118 per cent share price gain over the past 12 months is completely wiped out when returns are converted back either to dollars or sterling.