It's that time of year again where we pundits are expected to trot out forecasts for the coming twelve months. I don't mind playing along - it's my job to have a view, after all. My only caveat is that of Helmuth von Moltke, the 19th century Prussian general, who observed that no battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy. In other words, it’s fine for a short-term trader to have a view of where the markets are going longer-term, as long as one is willing to change it as the circumstances change.
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