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Opinion

Small caps' fake allure

Small caps' fake allure
January 7, 2013
Small caps' fake allure

It's tempting to think that this is a reason to favour smaller UK stocks over larger ones, as small caps are generally more domestically-oriented than global FTSE 100 companies. History, however, suggests this would be dangerous.

This is because the correlation between UK small caps and UK industrial production, relative to the euro area's, is actually negative: for annual changes, the correlation coefficient has been minus 0.31 since January 2000. This tells us that when UK output grows faster than euro area output, small caps are more likely to fall than rise. Not certain to fall, note, but more likely than not.

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