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National Express loses 1m pensioners

RESULTS: National Express blamed the government for one of its worst years ever, but management is confident of growth in 2013
February 28, 2013

Accelerating profits in North America sparked a scramble to board National Express (NEX), even though the government scrapped its senior citizens concession scheme - meaning a £16m hit for the transport group after losing 1m coach passengers. That explains the 9 per cent drop in pre-tax profit to £164.1m, after stripping out hefty rail bid costs and other one-offs, which was clearly better than expected.

IC TIP: Hold at 215p

Keeping nearly all its US school bus contracts and winning 26 new ones increased underlying revenue there by 3 per cent. While cost-cutting and route adjustments secured sector-leading margins and a 23 per cent leap in the division's underlying operating profit to £59.1m. Management has found savings of $7m (£4.6m) following the purchase of Petermann, too, and further savings are likely this year. A slight dip in demand on intercity routes since the autumn and a weak euro trimmed Spanish profits by 7 per cent to £83.8m. Still, margins improved, urban revenues grew and prompt payments by hard-up local governments helped generate an extra £59m of cash. Back here, popular corporate and student travelcards nudged bus profits up 4 per cent to £34.1m and cost-cutting helped offset fuel costs and lower government subsidies. Losing the East Anglia franchise carved 38 per cent off UK rail profits to £26.7m, but a two-year extension to its c2c line looks likely and two contracts in Germany start in 2015.

Broker Liberum Capital expects adjusted pre-tax profit of £135m in 2013, giving adjusted EPS of 20.5p (from 25.5p in 2012).

NATIONAL EXPRESS (NEX)

ORD PRICE:218pMARKET VALUE:£1.12bn
TOUCH:217-218p12-MONTH HIGH:256pLOW: 163p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.5%PE RATIO:18
NET ASSET VALUE 174p*NET DEBT:92%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20072.7711040.422.7
20082.71-83.5-17.6nil
20092.1340.212.06.00
20102.2412919.99.50
20111.8369.811.89.75
% change-18-46-41+3

Ex-div: 24 Apr

Payment: 17 May

*Includes intangible assets of £1.26bn, or 247p a share