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Copper prices constrict Antofagasta

RESULT: Antofagasta's half-year earnings were held in check by rising costs and falling copper prices
August 28, 2013

The chances of Antofagasta (ANTO) announcing a bumper special dividend for the fourth consecutive year receded after the copper miner's half-year earnings were held in check by rising costs and falling copper prices.

IC TIP: Hold at 885p

Antofagasta's revenues were constricted to the tune of $409m (£264m) by realised copper prices that were down 16 per cent on the 2012 half year to $3.15 per pound. Admittedly, the group did manage to partially mitigate the price falls through a ramp up at the Esperanza mine, which was largely responsible for the 8.4 per cent rise in copper output and the 5.9 per cent rise in copper sales volumes to 341,000 tonnes, effectively delivering an extra $131m to sales. The optimisation at Esperanza remains on track, with ore throughput running at 86,700 tonnes a day, which is expected to hit 105,000 tonnes during 2015, while management reiterated its full-year output target of 700,000 tonnes.

Higher energy bills at Los Pelambres fed through into a 9.3 per cent rise in cash costs (pre by-product credits) to $1.76 a pound. The upshot was a 31 per cent reduction in cash profits to $1.28bn, which was slightly adrift of the market consensus, and a 23 per cent decline in operating cash flow to $1.37bn.

Broker Investec Securities expects 2013 EPS of 90.4¢ (from 104.7¢ in 2012).

ANTOFAGASTA (ANTO)
ORD PRICE:885pMARKET VALUE:£8.7bn
TOUCH:884p-885p12-MONTH HIGH:1,321pLOW: 783p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.6%PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:669¢NET CASH:$1.51bn

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)*
20123.161.5665.58.5
20132.780.9840.18.9
% change-12-37-39+5

Ex-div: 18 Sep

Payment: 10 Oct

£1=$1.55 *Excludes special dividend payments per share of 77.5¢ in 2012, 24¢ in 2011 and 100¢ in 2010