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Ted Baker, an expensive outfit

RESULTS: Growth is impressive, but Ted Baker comes with an equally spectacular price tag
October 3, 2013

Rapid international expansion, and further growth at home, drove half-year retail sales up 30 per cent at Ted Baker (TED) - and the share price is only a short swagger down the catwalk from an all-time high. Its new autumn/winter collection has gone down well with fashionistas, too, and trading has been good so far this half. That said, analysts haven't upgraded profit forecasts this time and the shares, much like its fancy dresses and sharp suits, are certainly not cheap.

IC TIP: Hold at 1890p

Again, you get what you pay for, and Ted is a high quality outfit. It set out to increase earnings by 10-15 per cent a year when it listed in 1997 and has done just that. In fact, pre-tax profit before one-off items and a £0.9m staff bonus provision jumped by a third this time to £12.5m - generating 20 per cent growth in underlying EPS to 20.2p. Broker N+1 Singer expects £38m and 62.9p respectively for the full-year (from £31.7m/53.7p in 2013).

Clearly, opening up in six new countries over the past 12 months - Japan, China, South Korea, Germany, Holland and Canada - has helped. While new stores and concessions in the US, Europe and Shanghai during the first half have taken the group total to 341 - three years ago it was 225. Retail sales were driven by 23 per cent growth in the UK and Europe to £91.6m, and by a 57 per cent surge in North America, to £25.4m. In Asia, sales rocketed 79 per cent to £5m, and the Tokyo store could act as a springboard to concessions in department stores, probably next year. Moreover, it was the trend in new countries to start selling womenswear first that explains why that segment's growth reached 36 per cent during the period and outperformed menswear - up 25 per cent.

Elsewhere, delivering more of the autumn/winter collection before the end of the period flattered the wholesale business where sales rose by a third to £33.2m. Expect low double-digit growth during the second half. Growth in retail sales will be slower than the first half, too. Opening stores on Fifth Avenue and in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Toronto, Beijing and Kuala Lumpur last year dramatically increased average retail selling space, but the coming months will be much quieter and new stores will contribute less. Tidying up its portfolio of stores – shutting some and relocating others - could also cost Ted up to £1m, according to N+1 Singer.

TED BAKER (TED)

ORD PRICE:1,890pMARKET VALUE:£809m
TOUCH:1,887-1,899p12-MONTH HIGH:2,022pLOW: 903p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.5%PE RATIO:33
NET ASSET VALUE:231pNET DEBT:30%

Half-year to 10 AugTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20121197.7613.97.90
201315511.620.29.50
% change+30+49+45+20

Ex-div: 16 Oct

Payment: 22 Nov