Join our community of smart investors

Equity opportunities still left in Japan

Katie Morley chats to Matthew Brett, co manager of Ballie Gifford's Japanese Fund, about the opportunities still left in the Japanese equity market.
November 13, 2013

In Japan, the care home industry is having a capacity crunch. A sea of frail and elderly people are checking in - and due to the sheer number of them - their human carers are being part replaced with robots to help tend to their needs. It's cheaper and more efficient.

Some people will see this is as a major cause for concern, but others will see it as an investment opportunity.

The phenomenon is something of a zeitgeist of the Japanese economy, and has caught the eye of Matthew Brett, co-manager of the Ballie Gifford Japanese Fund (GB0006010838) and the Baillie Gifford Japan Trust (BGFD), an IC Top 100 Fund. He's not exactly falling over himself to invest, though.

He describes it as a "disruptive technology", but says in general the care home industry as a whole is looking overvalued at the moment, because everyone wants "in". And it's a theme that's preventing him from investing in a number of companies that cash in on the ageing population, in which he's extremely interested.

For example, as a business he likes Unicharm - the largest Japanese nappy producer - but he doesn't own any shares in it. Nappy sales are booming in Japan. Thanks to the mushrooming elderly population, sales of adult-sized nappies are now head and shoulders above disposable pants for children.

The demographics makes investing look like a no-brainer, but he says the company is way overvalued and therefore not a suitable investment for the fund.

Overall, Mr Brett says Japanese equities are looking more expensive than a year ago, too.

"We did say 12 months ago that Japanese equities were very cheap - we now think they are not expensive, which is obviously less good than 'very cheap'," he said.

"A year ago the Japanese equity market was the best performing developed market, but unlike other areas, it is still lowly rated on a price to earnings basis. That's because earnings growth has been so fast."

 

 

Speaking about the country from a macro perspective, he says Japan is a totally different place to what it was two years ago. But he has quickly adapted to the drastic changes and has managed to beat other fund managers in his peer group (Japan Equity) over a one-year period with a 41.7 per cent return (38.9 per cent average).

He's heavily invested in infrastructure (9.4 per cent) and resources (9.1 per cent and has raked in the most profit from Fuji Heavy Industries and Digital Garage (2.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent of portfolio growth, respectively). And he sees big opportunities in employment agencies over the coming year - he particularly likes Temp Holdings and Pasona.

Most recently, he's sold out of Japan Tobacco as he believes it's suffering from disruptive innovation in the form of e-cigarettes. He's also got rid of all his shares in Keihin, the car and motorbike manufacturer, and Meitec, an electrical firm.

But should ordinary investors still feel confident about buying Japanese equities? Or does the sharp rise in valuations since the start of 2013 mean it's too late for those who haven't got in yet?

He's adamant he doesn't think it's anything to worry about. A year ago the market was looking dirt cheap, and while he admits it's not looking like such a bargain anymore, the fact that company earnings have risen in line with equity valuations suggests the rally could continue, he says.

And there is much to be optimistic about, he believes.

For a start, the weakening of the yen has improved the competitiveness of Japanese goods and business confidence has reached its highest level in five years.

This will heavily impact on Japanese companies' profitability, he says.

The prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and the governor of the Bank of Japan have been printing bank notes in a quantitative easing measure, which has weakened the yen. This has driven Japanese bond yields lower, which could be very beneficial.

And a knock-on effect is that sectors such as manufacturing have seen their operating profits rise several-fold, he adds.

Consumers' attitude towards equity investment is also evolving in Japan - and Brett is optimistic this will help pedal the rally he's hoping for.

The government has introduced a version of the UK's Isa to encourage people to save money, called the NISA (Nippon individual savings account). Mr Brett says this will encourage investors to hold more shares - sparking a domestic investment boost.

Encouragingly, economic activity was strong in the first half of the year, driven by a recovery in exports and an increase in household consumption, he says.