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Opinion

Bah! Humbug!

Bah! Humbug!
December 19, 2013
Bah! Humbug!

But who cares, because we've been off to the races as a result - it seemed like you only had to so much as open a stockbroking account this year to make money; in fact, if you'd bought into the Royal Mail IPO you didn't even have to do that. A stumble back into recession has been averted here in the UK, tiny Cyprus did not destroy the eurozone, and even US politicians have begun to sing from the same carol sheet (albeit still in a slightly different key). All is well in the world it seems, a fitting state of affairs as we head into the season of goodwill - and, looking across many of the predictions that traditionally flood our inboxes at this time of year, there is a generally warm-fuzzy feeling about the direction markets will take in 2014.

Sorry, but I think it's time to inject a little sense of Ebeneezer into the proceedings. The UK's rapid swing from the brink of triple-dip recession to one of the developed world's fastest growing economies tells you just how fast things can change, for good or bad. And there are certainly factors present that could still present investors with a major headache - no one knows what will happen when the Fed starts to taper, especially given the backdrop of an eye-wateringly expensive US market, or whether Japan's go-for-broke economic experiment will deliver the sustainable recovery that has proved so elusive for so long or, indeed, whether France's troubles will trigger another destabilising melee of eurozone squabbling. And, after a year of re-rating upwards, companies need to deliver recovery-driven earnings growth this year to catch up with their share prices - that's by no means a certainty.

So, if I were sitting on bumper gains I'd be giving some thought to wealth preservation - in fact, according to the latest data from registrar Capita UK private investors already are, becoming net sellers for the first time since May 2012 over the past three months. And I'd also point readers in the direction of Saxo Bank's so-called outrageous predictions for 2014 which we've published on our Chronic Investor blog - it's a timely reminder that investing isn't the risk-free cinch that this year's rising tide made it look and that even in a monetarist-led market fundamental anchors still matter.

Lastly, we would like to wish all of our readers a very merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year - we'll be back on Friday 3 January with our next issue, featuring our fundamentals-heavy Tips of the Year for 2014 to get you off to a flying start.