The good news, however, is that there is no plausible reason why the affairs of Antofagasta, the company, should wind up as miserably as the outcome of Nostromo, the novel. Not that you would reach that conclusion from watching Antofagasta's share price just lately. At 790p, it has fallen 43 per cent since the start of 2013 and is 51 per cent below its all-time peak (1,634p at the end of 2010).
In large part that's because Antofagasta's price - 35 per cent of the shares are in free float - and the price of copper are inseparable, and for almost three years the copper price has been dropping. The reasons behind that decline are well rehearsed - much to do with slowing growth in China in particular and the developing world in general combined with the run down of buffer stocks and falling demand to use the metal as collateral for loans.
Indeed, these reasons are not just well rehearsed but so thoroughly performed that metals analysts are now focusing on factors that will prompt the recovery. This spin includes the point that, actually, demand for copper from China won't be so depressed thanks to yet more spending on the nation's electricity infrastructure, which uses lots of copper. Then it seems likely that 2014's global demand for copper will be usefully more than analysts were guessing during their bouts of deepest depression a year or so ago. Meanwhile, global production will flatten owing to various strikes, production outages and disruption.
I simply recycle these points and don't pretend to be able to assess the likelihood of their outcome (though, I suspect, nor could industry analysts, except that they are not allowed to be so candid). But, in a way, they don't matter. Or, at least, they don't matter in forming a long-term view on Antofagasta's shares. Intuitively, we know that Antofagasta will continue to grind out copper from its huge open-cast pits at a production cost far below the prices at which it sells and that will provide the basis for solid - though occasionally variable - growth in profits and dividends.
In 2013 Antofagasta produced 721,000 tonnes of copper (a record), realising copper prices of $3.28 (£1.95) per pound against cash costs of $1.36. True, production will dip a touch this year - the group's bosses expect output of about 700,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, cash costs, which jumped substantially in 2013, should stay where they are. That's another way of saying that, for the second year running, Antofagasta's profits will be under pressure. However, 'pressure' is a relative term because the group's operating profit margin in 2013 was still 36 per cent. Sure, that pales in comparison with 2006's margin of 72 per cent, but it's also a darn sight better than 2001's margin - the narrowest this century - of 'just' 21.6 per cent.
There is an underlying message here, which is that, almost come what may, Antofagasta manages to produce enviable margins that drive growing profits - there have been just three 'down' years since 2000 (2001, 2009 and 2013) - and rising dividends. These should be just the ingredients to make its shares a viable candidate for the Bearbull Income Portfolio. However, is Antofagasta a high-yield stock?
The question isn't as dim as it seems. In recent years Antofagasta's payout has been characterised by special dividends. Include those and the shares do, indeed, generate the revenue that makes them 'high yield'. But Antofagasta's bosses want to regulate the payout a little more and say that in future the group will pay a dividend "equal to at least 35 per cent of earnings". To get a feel of where that might start, the average of the past five years would produce a dividend of about 20p per share - only enough to generate a 2.5 per cent yield at a buying price of 790p.
Yet it would be fair to assume that the payout will comfortably exceed that level. The group's average free cash flow per share for the past five years is almost 56p. It's a realistic prospect that all of it could be distributed - after all, it is the cash left over after all other needs have been met (including capital spending). If it were, then we are talking about a yield that tops 7 per cent. And even if the outcome is around the middle of those two extremes, then we would still have enough income to qualify Antofagasta as a high-yield play.
It's a tempting prospect. True, temptation did for the eponymous hero of Nostromo. But he could not resist the opportunity to steal a ship full of silver. Bearbull, meanwhile, can happily take refuge in his valuation spreadsheets to see if Antofagasta's shares really are a steal. I'll report back.
