Join our community of smart investors
Opinion

Next week's economics: 15-19 Dec

Next week's economics: 15-19 Dec
December 11, 2014
Next week's economics: 15-19 Dec

Is such low inflation sustainable? Some believe not, because the tight labour market will raise wage growth. We'll get an idea whether they're right on Wednesday. Although these numbers could show a rise in wage inflation, this is likely to still be lower than it was earlier this year. And the figures could also show that productivity growth is picking up, suggesting that higher wage costs are being offset by efficiency gains.

Low inflation should, in principle, boost retail sales. Thursday's official figures will tell us whether this is happening. Anecdotal evidence suggests that 'Black Friday' saw huge sales, but what of the rest of the month? Economists expect a small rise overall, which would leave sales volumes around 4.3 per cent higher than last November.

Manufacturing, however, might not be doing so well. The CBI is expected to say on Monday that although output and orders are growing, they are being held back by weak exports.

On this front, however, we might get some good new next week. Although flash purchasing managers' surveys on Tuesday are likely to show that the eurozone is barely growing, Germany's ZEW survey the same day could show a second successive monthly rise in optimism among financial professionals. And Thursday's Ifo survey might show that German businesses are also becoming more confident.

What's more, the US economy is growing nicely. Monday's figures should show that industrial production grew in November, and that manufacturers in the New York area are optimistic for coming months.

We'll see how UK and US interest rate setters respond to this next week. The Federal Reserve is expected to reiterate that interest rates won't rise "for a considerable time". And minutes of the recent MPC meeting are likely to suggest the same thing - although two members, Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, are expected to have continued to vote for a rate hike.

For investors, however, perhaps the most significant news will be Monday's US capital flows figures. If these repeat the picture of recent months, they will show little foreign buying of US equities, which suggests market confidence is low. Historically, this has been a predictor of good returns on equities generally in the following 12 months.