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Buy Tarsus for growth and income

Tarsus is expanding into new industries and territories, but its shares haven't caught up with its prospects
December 18, 2014

Investors seeking exposure to fast-growing emerging markets should take a look at Tarsus (TRS). The group boasts a diverse global portfolio of events and exhibitions and is growing both organically and through acquisitions. Moreover, its shares trade at a depressed rating - that doesn't reflect its strong prospects - and offer an attractive yield.

IC TIP: Buy at 199p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Strong sales and profit growth
  • Forecast yield of 4 per cent
  • Broad portfolio of global events
  • Shares are cheaply rated
Bear points
  • Geopolitical tension in some end markets
  • Exposed to currency movements

Tarsus earns about half of its revenues in emerging markets such as China, Dubai and Turkey, a third in the US and the remainder in Europe. It has accelerated its global expansion with its "quickening the pace" strategy, which centres on replicating its major events and buying attractive new ones in high-growth markets. For instance, in the past year it has acquired health conferences in Boston and Miami and stakes in two Mexican plastic and manufacturing shows. It recently transplanted its Turkish houseware and gifts event, Zuchex, in Indonesia, and plans to replicate three of its established shows in Mexico next year. Overall, it plans to launch eight events in new territories by the end of 2015. This expansion is being funded by the extension of a £60m loan facility to 2019 along with a £10m share placing at 200p which took place last February.

 

 

Tarsus's on-year-off-year trading pattern reflects the fact that it organises several large biennial shows. For instance, the biennial Dubai Airshow and Labelexpo Europe, which posted respective sales growth of 25 and 11 per cent last year, will take place next year. Nonetheless, Tarsus has made substantial gains in the current off year. Bookings for the period from 1 July to 10 November - adjusted for biennial shows, acquisitions and currency movements - rose 8 per cent. That followed a strong first half in which Tarsus's like-for-like sales and forward bookings both rose 9 per cent. Moreover, compared with the first half of 2012, Tarsus's first-half pre-tax profits rose two thirds to £3m and it swung from an operating cash outflow of £800,000 to an inflow of £1.9m.

Tarsus has also built a portfolio of encrinology, dermatology and cardiovascular events in the US, providing lucrative exposure to the nation's enormous preventative healthcare industry. True, many American doctors have delayed spending as they come to terms with the Affordable Care Act. But Tarsus thinks the new legislation could prompt healthcare professionals to diversify their practices, fuelling demand for its events. Furthermore, analysts think Tarsus could roll out its Boston and Miami healthcare conferences in other US cities and overseas.

One concern is the potential for adverse currency movements. Tarsus earns about half of its revenues in US dollars and about 14 per cent in both Euros and Turkish lira. It is also exposed to regional tensions in Turkey and the Middle East.

TARSUS (TRS)
ORD PRICE:199pMARKET VALUE:£ 201m
TOUCH:194-200p12M HIGH / LOW:246p188p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:4.0%FORWARD PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:33p*NET DEBT:91%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201161.916.716.56.3
201251.514.311.76.8
201375.923.219.07.3
2014**58.715.911.67.7
2015**87.325.518.98.0
% change+49+60+63+4

Normal market size: 1,500

Matched bargain trading

Beta:0.36

*Includes intangible assets of £112m, or 111p a share

**Investec forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures