For some time now, the eating-out market has grown faster than retail, as consumers have spent money on experiences rather than products. According to industry benchmark The Coffer Peach Tracker, like-for-like sales in managed pubs and restaurants rose 2.8 per cent year on year in December. The tracker has now outperformed the BRC retail index in 14 of the past 15 months.
And restaurant chains are now outperforming pubs. Like-for-like restaurant sales were up 4.7 per cent year on year in December, compared with 2 per cent for managed pub and bar groups. But this hasn't been a long-term trend: for the first half of 2014 pubs outperformed restaurants. And pubs are still doing better in London: for December, Numis reported a 5.4 per cent like-for-like improvement in restaurant sales outside London, compared with a 3.6 per cent improvement inside.
The scene is therefore set for a fairly buoyant 2015. The fly in the ointment could be oversupply. According to the Coffer Peach Tracker, restaurant supply grew by 7 per cent in 2014, with the number of restaurant chain outlets up 10 per cent. Yet discounting in a deflationary macroeconomic environment doesn't seem to be hitting restaurants nearly as hard as it is the retailers.